The weather turning warmer now, we are heading into November and it is now more likely to see 30C weather from this point, it has been a cooler start to the season regionally but likely to see this shift with the pattern shifting over the southeast and south of the nation.
High pressure is moving southwards of the nation and this is going to allow for the westerly wind belt to contract back to the pole, allowing for easterly winds to feature more prominently from now on, any front that comes through won't quite be able to sweep the moisture out of the north of the nation either.
With the tropical and climate drivers favouring higher humiditiy, more precipitable water values and lower air pressure, more rainfall than normal is still likely for large parts of the nation's north and east. The weather later next week will start to fire up over WA and this will move south and east into SA ahead of the next trough.
Lets take a look
Rainfall next 10 days
Rainfall lean for the coming week and we have seen that since this morning with the weakening band of rain, coming into sinking air and dry low levels, not much coming from all this cloud. The next chance of rainfall will likely arrive mid next week, starting out over the northern districts as moisture creeps in from the tropics, being pulled in ahead of a trough moving out of WA. This will offer scattered showers and thunderstorms for a number of days through northern and eastern areas.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
As per the video - the Euro is the solution I am siding with. Note the flow of westerly winds is being pushed south and all of a sudden severe weather season has erupted as per my forecasts on that back in July. We are looking at more of the same over the coming 4-5 days, a persistence forecast. The cooler weather over the southern coastal areas will be replaced by a warmer phase next week and then we will likely see the stormy daily events over northern Australia, shift further south through next week and come into the southeast and eastern inland by the end of the month into early November. This is the typical seasonal shift.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
The moisture again is building over the tropics and with a warmer atmosphere it lends itself to promoting more volatile weather which we have seen over QLD and NSW over recent days, larger scale rainfall events as well, the air can hold more moisture so when the low pressure systems return, be aware that it will be raining a lot. For now we continue with a drier picture for those under the upper high over eastern SA, western NSW and QLD as well as northern VIC. The east coast sees showers and storms in that humid airmass that gets stuck, which extends over the tropics which is typical. Be aware the forecast confidence beyond day 5 is poor at the moment.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more details.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more guidance - but that is a warmer pattern with scattered storms across the country.
More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT.