Summer time in SA has resumed and even though coastal areas are seeing fluctuating temperatures with the fast flow pattern to the south of the country, this pattern is allowing the heat levels to dam over the northern and central inland areas, meaning that heatwave conditions are likely to develop.

This is good news for the flood zones, still recovering after a very damp January.

The heat will be on for coastal areas each time the winds veer into the north and northwest, but at this time, there is no long duration heatwave conditions forecast at this time, with the troughs to the south bringing up shallow cool changes, one today, one on the weekend and another this time next week.

Each of those look dry for now.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall very lean to non existent for many areas, and I dare say most of you will go dry this week. That is not unusual for February, with the movement of the tropical rainfall distribution. Once we see the weather start cranking over northwest and northern Australia again and the high pressure ridge to the south move further away then conditions will turn more humid and the rainfall chances will increase again.

DATA - Refer to video for the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

No change from this morning which means a settled 7 days for much of the nation can be expected with no severe weather events at this time. The bulk of the inland of the nation dry under sinking air motion coupled with dry air. The coastal areas out through northwest WA is where you will find the wettest weather in the country. The tropics also expecting to see below average rainfall and thunderstorm activity for the coming week and above average temperatures. The east coast will see some light showers, but overall a drier and quieter week of weather with onshore winds at times. A good degree of variation in the temperatures over southern Australia throughout the period with the fast flow pattern which is reflected in the cold front activity south of the nation

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Very dry air nationally means low rainfall chances for the coming week. Some evidence that begins to be overridden in the medium term, but exactly how that looks remains uncertain at this time with the fast flow pattern likely to be with southern Australia for the coming week and possibly the following week. Each wave introducing more dry air over the nation and suppressing rainfall chances. With winds remaining out of the west, this will keep moisture content low over the inland areas as well.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for further information

A closer look in - the drier signal is continuing thanks to the out of phase MJO and negative SAM this week.

More details coming up from 8am EDT - enjoy the quiet weather pattern - it is helping me recharge my batteries ahead of the next crazy wave of weather which won't be too far away with the latest indications that La Nina may be with us until the end of April!! More on that later this week.

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