SA - FINE FOR NOW, BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RETURN WITH AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY.

Most of SA will be dry and settled for this period with persistent ridging in place thanks to a stagnant pressure pattern. You guessed it, more of that dry air, easterly winds and ridging likely to lead to sunny skies for inland areas and hot weather. This is typical for March.


However, be aware that Anika will be lurking over the western border and we could see increased clouds moving in from the northwest and patchy rainfall over the northwest and west of the state.


The southeast and south could see showers and thunderstorms with an upper low that is forecast to pass over the Lower SE and then moving into VIC and NSW where severe weather is possible this weekend.


Heavy rainfall may develop for the southeast areas with some areas possibly getting close to a month's worth of rainfall for some.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be moderate to heavy over the far southeast with an upper low passing through the eastern Bight into the southeast states. This may clip the region bringing a band thundery rainfall, but most of it will probably stay southeast of Adelaide and heaviest southeast of Keith at this time but this could change. Upper lows, very tricky to forecast ahead of time. Over the far west and northwest there could be some patchy rainfall and thunder moving in from eastern WA but light rainfall for now. Elsewhere, dry and settled with just some cloud from time to time.


Southeast Ag Areas

Possibly some heavier rainfall developing this Friday with the upper low passing through the region from west to east, clearing by Saturday lunch time. But with the airmass quite unstable and the air aloft very moist, the rain could be rather productive with moderate to heavy falls with the passage of the trough and upper low. Flash flooding is a chance.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday Afternoon

A chance of some thunderstorms early Wednesday redeveloping about some wind convergence over the southeast areas but the risk is low and very conditional.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday night into Thursday.

For the far west, there may be some high based storms later in the day or at night.

HEADS UP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

Some areas about SE SA and E SA could see strong to severe storms on Friday with a heavy band of rainfall over the far southeast moving into VIC producing flash flooding for some areas before easing Saturday.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and for the daily run down


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more analysis in the video, but the areas of concern to watch have been well forecast ahead of time, and we will start to see them unfolding now. So that being the flood event for the NSW coast and adjacent inland, the approach and passage of TC Anika and the severe weather potential for inland areas with flooding. We may see another wave of low pressure in the upper levels on Friday drive severe weather for eastern SA, VIC, NSW/ACT and southern QLD this weekend with follow up severe storms. The remainder of the nation away from the southeast, east and northwest looking at seasonal conditions. In the medium term you can see the impacts of the positive SAM phase.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The very deep moisture profile is expected to dominate for the coming week over the northwest and over the east and southeast with a dynamic atmosphere in both locations leading to the above average rainfall. Elsewhere, the drier air is planted firmly over the southwest of the nation and in pockets of central and eastern inland areas on the backside of low pressure moving through the east. The pattern may begin to shift in the medium term but at this stage, it looks like the models are keen to keep the easterly wind bias in place.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more details

A closer look in - numbers are fairly lean over much of the state but note the red blobs indicating that where the storms form, they will pack a punch as seen in spots yesterday and today. Watch that system on Friday through the weekend which could produce more rainfall than advertised here.

More coming up tonight with a look at all things modelling and rainfall after 9pm EDT.


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