No change from the weekend signals for the state, the benign weather pattern continuing thanks to a high sitting close by, dry air aloft - this combining to bring the seasonal weather for the south and hot to very hot weather for inland areas this week.

We have a few high based storms rolling through with a weak pressure trough which is maybe producing a few spits of rain, that will clear east tonight.

The weather is expected to remain variable for southern areas as the troughs and fronts running through a northward movement of the westerly wind belt (thanks to the neutral SAM) leading to periods of very hot air coming southeast being replaced by cooler southwest winds.

A stronger system over the weekend may bring a run of below average temperatures to southern districts and a milder shift for inland areas, not much rainfall is anticipated at this time, thanks to the dry air.

Hot next week too statewide, and becoming more humid over northern areas with the chance of showers and thunderstorms for northern and central areas, spreading south over the Christmas period.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain very lean and mainly coastal if anything falls, and over the far northern areas with the NT, as moisture creeps southwards later in the outlook period. Overall, most areas going dry for the coming 7 days for now. The weather may turn more favourable for rainfall to return for inland areas as we edge towards Christmas.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern is typical summer for the week ahead in the short term, with no major severe weather events at this stage, but storms could pack a punch at times and I will assess those events as we go along. But the bottom line is no widespread rainfall is anticipated for at least the coming 10 days. The tropical airmass begins to descend from around Christmas and we should see an uptick in the number of showers and thunderstorms from then into early 2022.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very dry air should be removed from the northern and central interior parts of the nation come the end of the week and in response, the showers and thunderstorms will return to these areas, resuming build up conditions. The eastern and southeast inland is expected to see variable weather, but more heat that what we have experienced so far this warm season, but as mentioned, the humidity will also increase, in hand as temperatures increase. The west staying mainly cooler through the period with dry air about and onshore winds. The nation will gradually become more humid as more of that monsoonal weather returns so January may turn wet IF that does indeed eventuate.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - it may look patchy but I do suspect rainfall totals will increase over the course of the next few days - more details in the post at 9pm.

More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the rainfall across the modelling, the interest lay in the medium and longer term, plenty to talk about.

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