SA - FINE AND DRY AFTER A COLD START THROUGH THE INLAND - SHOWERS BACK SATURDAY

A fine spell of weather is expected to persist for the coming days with a dry southerly flow easing but the run of below average temperatures are likely to continue.


The low cloud over the southeast with a few showers still about but they are largely clearing.

We have another round of severe frosts possible during Thursday morning before the weather warms somewhat in a northwest to westerly flow. The winds overnight saved the coastal areas from the colder night but there has been some frost over parts of the east and northeast.

Cold over the Flinders this morning with some light frost though temperatures elsewhere cold, but just above freezing.

Rainfall is now confined to the far southeast of SA into VIC with the low offshore the east moving further away hence why conditions not as wintry this morning.

The weather is expected to turn cloudy from Friday afternoon in the far west where showers may develop along a weakening cold front, that front may developing into a low pressure system. The low will sit offshore with a number of troughs rotating around the centre of the circulation, these making contact with the coast through the weekend with showery periods.


The low will dive to the southeast with showers contracting through VIC and TAS during Sunday before fine and warm weather develops, the northwest flow increases with a ridge building back over the state.


A stronger cold front will begin to approach from this time next week with a good potential for moderate rainfall over much of the south and inland areas with the front possibly developing into a low pressure system as it passes east.


Ahead of that front it could be some of the warmest weather we have seen in about 5 months for SA with a good supply of sunshine. This will get things growing!!!

Lets look at the latest.


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The low continues to move off the east coast allowing the pressure pattern to start moving west to east. A high over the inland is controlling the nations weather for the most part through the weekend. We have a front passing over SWLD of WA during Thursday bringing showers. Another trough will move over the southeast with showers developing during Thursday and Friday, some of the rainfall over southeast VIC and NSW could be quite heavy with convergence setting up. The moisture over QLD increases during Friday and into the weekend, especially east of the GDR with showers and thunderstorms developing. The falls patchy but extending inland a bit, but will be confined to the eastern third of the state north of Hervey Bay. Then we watch a strong cold front developing next week over the west, which will bring a very warm burst of weather through the southern states. A band of rainfall is likely to move from WA, through SA and into the southeast states. This system falls just outside of the 10 day forecast. The medium term has further spring weather with fluctuations in the temperature and rainfall breaking out from time to time along troughs over the south and east. The humid weather will be back over the north.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall now confined to the east coast and southeast of VIC with lighter falls later this week over the southeast inland with a trough. The southwest of the nation will see lighter falls from Thursday and across the weekend while the east dries out. The weekend may introduce showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough over QLD Friday through early next week before another trough over the southeast inland brings showers and a storm Sunday. Then the weather settles under high pressure before the major rainfall event starts to brew over WA and moves eastwards over southern Australia. There are more rainfall events sitting in early September which signals that the spring weather with changeable weather will continue.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

Moisture flushed out through the past 24hrs will slowly rebuild over the northeast of QLD and through WA bringing back the chance of showers with a front passing over southern WA and a trough developing over eastern QLD. The rainfall may increase on and east of the trough through QLD and the moisture will eventually overrun the dry air dominance through the weekend into next week. The moisture then deepens further into the medium term and there is a very deep layer of moisture that is set up through the nation and low pressure troughs will lift this into areas of widespread rainfall for many parts of the nation as we track through early September. So expect the forecasts to start becoming wetter in the coming week.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro has more dry air lingering around but essentially very similar to GFS over the coming week. So there is good agreement in the scope and scale of systems. For QLD, your rainfall and how far west that comes is determined by the timing of the troughs moving through the southern parts of the nation. That will act to pull the moisture offshore next week. Then we will be tracking that major rainfall event that forms over WA with a classic spring set up, warm to hot northwest winds being drawn southeast followed by a band of rain and colder air from the southwest. Over the north the moisture will eventually return so enjoy the drier air this weekend.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall very lean for the coming week over inland areas. The coast should see the bulk of the rainfall during this period, with a high over much of the inland dominating. It is not until we see a new system surging through from WA and across the southern states that rainfall will return to large parts of inland areas of southern and eastern Australia.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

You can see the moisture values below average through much of the nation which is normal after such a strong southerly flow blasted through. The dry air will stay in place for much of the inland for the coming 5-7 days, with moisture confined to coastal areas under the synoptic setup. Then with the high moving east next week, we will see the moisture pass through QLD into the NT and then captured by that stronger system moving out of the west, and this is where will see the rain band develop for the east and south.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

A few showers over the southeast coast is all that is left, a dry couple of days expected. We have got that weakening trough or low that will pass through south of the state during the coming weekend, a few showers and storms possible with that before it moves onto the east. The next more substantial rainfall chances are connected to a large front moving in from WA mid to late next week. The bulk of the rainfall is expected with the system later next week.

Medium term forecast updated later this morning.

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