SA - FINE AND BENIGN WEATHER FOR MOST, WITH THE STORMS RUNNING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.

It is set to get hotter as we go this week, but we won't feel the bulk of that heat until the weekend over the south and southeast as the high to the south remains near stationary.


The weather over the north remaining unsettled and more humid with a trough over the NT and parent heat low driving the instability at this time.


No rainfall expected during the coming 7 days with the weather likely to become the hottest it has been since last Summer for most areas as we track into the weekend into next week with a dry airmass.


The humid air will return from at the end of the run with thundery weather spreading from the northwest to southeast.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains minimal for much of the state with thundery weather over the far north leading to isolated falls above 15mm daily this week, but really these will be away from rain gauges. The next chance for rainfall likely to run along a trough that will not only bring in dry hot weather next week but instability through the mid levels, to see showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast out west and spreading east gradually just outside of this chart. Therefore no changes to this chart at this time.

DATA


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The GFS is spreading the rainfall over the nation in line with the CMC where the latest Euro has got a different idea in the short term for the east, more on that in the rainfall and model wrap after 9pm EDT. For now the most active weather rainfall wise will be found over the east and southeast this week, the west stays hot and SA, in the goldilocks zone, with seasonal weather for most of this week, hotter inland. No rainfall of note for most of western VIC, SA and southern WA. The tropics remain unstable and hot with storms, locally severe most days. The weather over the interior will be humid to start with but a drier airmass may begin to move in and this could see the heat engine over WA move southeast into SA, VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD from next week with drier weather potential which would be welcome.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

You can see the PW values are below average over the southwest and south of the nation nearer to the high pressure zone. For the north and the east, the moisture remains elevated with a deep supply thanks to onshore winds, the tropical northeasterly winds spreading moisture south through the nation, this pattern allowed to persist for most of this week, leading to the moisture building up to excessive levels. But in the areas closer to high pressure, dry and very hot weather is building and as the pattern flips, that heat will be projected across the south and east, so a break from the humidity over the south and east is quite likely, but replaced with high heat. Then as that heat develops, watch the tropical weather respond, with the humid air returning into the week leading into Christmas.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More on this coming up from 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - this will continue to change, the heavier rainfall will move around and with the divergence in modelling, it is low confidence forecasting as mentioned for the past week.

More on the rainfall and modelling after 9pm EDT - when will more rainfall of note arrive?


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