SA - DRY WEEKEND BUT FINALLY SOME RAINFALL ON THE HORIZON FOR THE STATE.

But can it make it south as far as the Agricultural areas by mid next week? Will the high that is ridging through to clear out conditions tonight. Friday and the weekend looking fairly benign through the state. Perhaps a lingering shower or storm over the far north and northeast.


From Monday, the moisture from the remains of Tiffany are expected to seep southwards towards the Northwest Pastoral District. Areas of heavy rainfall will then likely sweep the northern and central parts during Tuesday with the remnants of her passing over the state.


The upper flow pattern supports the rainfall moving more east of south at this time, however a few models are trying to turn the winds northerly bring the rain and thunderstorms further south into the Ag Areas so by no means, is the forecast set in stone regarding the rainfall coverage next week.


So for now increasing rainfall a high chance for inland areas of SA with some of that possibly spreading south to the Ag Areas where patchy rain and increasing clouds may form. The forecast remains volatile in terms of changing from run to run. So anything out there offering specifics, the confidence in that being right, very low!


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall should clear the very far east and northeast as the trough moves into the eastern states. Drier southerly winds and a refreshing airmass are now moving in suppressing rainfall chances. As we move through the weekend cloud will begin to increase over the northwest, a sign of moisture intruding from the NT and WA. A band of rain is expected to move through northern SA during the early part of next week, how far south that comes remains to be seen. But overall the pattern is starting to shift a little as mentioned from mid month, and on cue, the weather is now starting to respond to the very high heat. Rainfall making it further south is depending on the ridge to the south, if that can get out the way, then rainfall of a solid nature will make it all the way through the state.

DATA - Refer to video for more guidance and the daily breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More information can be found in the video but do understand the main point of this data, it is low confidence and will likely change again.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The one thing models do agree on is the moisture will be moved around all parts of the nation as we move through the outlook period and into the second half of this month setting up the very wet end to January and a wet February.

00Z ICON - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

More information can be found in the video

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video

A closer look in

Another update tomorrow morning from 830am EDT. I am driving back from rural NT this evening so no more from me until the morning update. Have a great evening.

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