SA - DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE COMING 7 DAYS - BUT THE WEATHER IS SET TO TURN WETTER NEXT WEEK.

There are opportunities with some rainfall to return to the region from next week with a front and trough passing through the southern parts of the state. But until then, you will have to live along the NSW border to find the thundery weather.


A dry airmass and stable air will bring about settled weather through the weekend with hot weather for the north and west and some milder temperatures along the southeast and southern coast.


Sunday, a mid level trough will pass through the south of the state but only activate into thundery weather into VIC. The humidity is deeper further east into the eastern states.


The next chance of rainfall may form from mid next week with a frontal passage moving through with a band of light to moderate showers for the southern Ag areas at this time, but the confidence in the forecast is not especially great.


Lets see what the models are showing this evening.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be lean over much of the state for the coming 10 days. The only rainfall opportunities exist with the odd rogue storm in the far east and over the southern Ag areas next week with a frontal passage. The wild card that I will keep referring to is that tropical feature near the NT. If that can move south and southwest through northern WA, then moisture may be able to spread south through the nation and into the interior, bringing up rainfall chances into the medium term. For now it is low confidence rainfall forecasting next week so stay watching.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

I am probably being more than generous with the thunderstorm forecast, but a slim chance of thunderstorms along the eastern border once again during the afternoon and evening with most of the wet weather likely further east.

DATA - Refer to video for more information


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pressure pattern remains dynamic and the main areas that I will repeat need pointing out. The potential cyclone development over northern Australia, especially the feature off Darwin carries some high concern of severe weather. The east coast still expected to see significant rainfall with large scale risk of flooding continuing overnight and through Friday before easing. Severe storm outbreak is of some concern over the southeast inland from Sunday through Tuesday with further flash flood risks possible. The west is hot and dry with high fire dangers but conditions may begin to cool from mid week with the pattern mobilising a little more. Overall the weather for SA is dry, but coastal areas and some Ag areas may see some light and patchy rainfall with limited moisture via thunderstorms. Otherwise central areas remain dry and warm to hot. But watch the moisture over the north and northeast.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Very high moisture levels over the nation's north and east is leading to widespread heavy rainfall and flooding potential, with severe thunderstorms featuring for many areas as well. The west and central areas seeing mainly dry air for the period, but this looks to get overridden by the movement of the tropical moisture from northern Australia moving south over the next 2 weeks.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

CMC 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - watch the moisture coming in from the east fuelling the showers and thunderstorms in the short term

But also the signals on rainfall increasing from the northwest in the medium term too. Things may be shifting a little more in the medium term.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT

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