SA - DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS SPREADING EAST.

It has been rinse and repeat weather for a while now with a stagnant pressure pattern with high pressure close by to the region driving in mild to warm easterly winds over southern areas, and maintaining the heat over northern areas bordering WA, QLD and the NT. The warmer weather up north is likely to shift south and southeast over the next week.


So the lovely Autumnal weather is forecast to turn more like Summer again with most districts heading back to above average temperatures with mostly dry weather anticipated.


Now for eastern areas, watching a trough over NSW and QLD which will likely lead to convection getting very close to the border. Whether the moisture and rainfall can make it to the eastern districts remains to be seen.


For now it is looking mostly dry for the next week.


This time next week we do see a trough moving out of WA, some of the models amplify this into an upper low, other models pass it through without much consequence. The weather at this time likely to turn milder with a few showers and thunderstorms from mid next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains fairly lean over the coming week at this time, most areas not seeing much rainfall at all in the forecast near ridging and dry air. The weather in the far east is expected to become a little more humid with the chance of showers and thunderstorms flirting very close with border communities. The weather next week turning hotter and more unstable as another trough moves out of WA and this could provide some light to moderate rainfall for the Ag Areas over the south but remaining dry for the north.

DATA - Refer to video for more information relating to the short and medium term forecasts.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The surface pressure pattern has begun to settle down with a high taking control of the weather picture over much of southern and western Australia. Drier air in the wake of the large low pressure system is expected to filter north over southern QLD with that airmass combining with the drier air to bring settled weather to many and cool starts on the next couple of days. For the west, we are seeing a hot airmass stay in place for the coming days and that will edge eastwards over the course of the next week so temperatures coming up for SA and into VIC and NSW with the humidity of the weekend which triggers the unsettled conditions over the eastern inland on by. The east coast seeing showery weather in onshore winds with no major lifting mechanism, so falls to remain light to moderate and no impact to flood zones. Heaviest rainfall and humidity will retreat to the tropics and this will be in line with the increase in showers and storms over the next week. We are still watching the MJO to see whether that gets it's act together to bring up rainfall chances over the northern third of the nation and whether moisture can seed troughs over the southern and western parts increasing the chance of Autumn Break conditions.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is expected to come down a notch for the east and southeast and through southern Australia and back into WA for the coming 2 days with drier and clearer skies. The humidity from QLD will likely move back south into NSW with that moisture then being eroded by drier warmer air coming in from SA and WA. So overall there is no long duration deep moisture layer that is set to bring about tropical weather that we have seen through Summer for large parts of the flood zones. Apart from low level moisture via onshore winds in the east, things are looking seasonal. Over northern Australia, the moisture also seasonal but we could see some of that moisture deepen and head south through the sub tropics and this if it comes south far enough, may be drawn into the jet stream bringing up the chances of cloud bands forming on top of the westerly wind belt try to move north in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video analysis for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video analysis for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video analysis for more information and the state by state fly around to bring your more context.

A closer look in - the numbers are more uneven in distribution throughout the region as we see no organised low pressure system at this time. But this could change quickly. More on that this evening.

More coming up in the models and all things rainfall update from 8pm EDT tonight.

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