SA - DRY FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL STILL SHOWS UP ON MODELLING.

The weather is certainly looking very dry and stable for a number of days as a high begins to move through to the southeast of the state bringing a nice few days of weather, not as hot as what we have seen but certainly some drier days. A few showers possible about the far southeast but overall not expected to be widespread or significant.


As we move into the weekend, there is the chance we see more widespread cloud and rain developing over the central and northern interior with a deep moisture profile developing over the state. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to break out in response to a trough forming over the interior of the nation.


This could lead to some above average rainfall for many areas as we go from ANZAC Day through to the end of the month. But as mentioned many times this weekend gone and through this week so far, the forecasts will chop and change and be prepared for that.


There is a chance the rain event could favour northern and western areas, or could dive further east into eastern SA and western NSW and VIC.


Many variables are still needing to be ironed out.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be a no show for many areas through to about Sunday where we see showers increasing over northern areas, with a trough deepening over the northern parts of the state, into the NT. This upper disturbance will pull in large amounts of moisture and this is forecast to lead to a robust and widespread cloud band over eastern areas. Rain and thunderstorms could become heavy at times during ANZAC Day and areas beyond towards the south and east as we move through the end of the month. The forecast confidence on the system evolving is relatively high, but rainfall totals and who gets what, remains low and will remain so as we track through the coming days. Once we see the upper system on the board is when we will find out what sort of event we are looking at and what influence it will have on the state.

MEDIUM TERM - April 26th - May 3rd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much change to the rainfall anomalies expectations through this period with a large rainfall event likely ongoing through the interior from ANZAC Day before that sweeps south and east over the remainder for the end of the month and into early May. The west could see another burst of rain band developing via the jet stream and Indian Ocean. Noting the rainfall over the northeast tropics also continuing at above average levels.

Moisture Watch

Widespread moisture is expected to be featuring across much of the nation as large rainfall events continue to unfold in light of the pattern shift. Another moisture infeed is likely to emerge through the west of the nation during the period, adding to the wet and moist atmosphere.

Temperature Anomalies

Widespread cloud over inland areas will lead to below average conditions. The only warm pockets will be found away from cloud and in a drier airmass which will be over the northwest of the country and over the southwest with easterly winds bringing warmer and drier air to these regions with sunny skies. Elsewhere, cooler and wetter.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video with the daily breakdown but I do caution that now we are moving on one weather system in the east, we will get a better handle on rainfall over the coming days for southern, central and eastern Australia. Be aware that your forecasts may dry up or become wetter and then flip. This is normal and expected. Over the northern tropics, things are still very active for this time of year and will help to populate more rainfall events into May from the west.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

A very deep moisture layer across the nation is ongoing for the southeast and eastern inland but this should move on out by Thursday. During the latter part of the week, the moisture over the northern tropics will continue to deepen and spread south and southwest with widespread rainfall opportunities beckoning with this moisture likely to be lifted by a trough over the interior. More moisture spreading out of the Indian Ocean is forecast to play a part in increasing rainfall opportunities for western parts of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Note the differences on the CMC to the GFS. This is why my forecast is so broad and will likely change in the coming days.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

And the Euro is different to the other models but more robust with the moisture over those northern areas of QLD. That would be beneficial for them as well.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - these numbers will bounce around and rather that updating again tonight we will wait again to morning once we lose the overnight rainfall from the totals below that is ongoing for inland areas. We can then get a sense of where the heavier rainfall is forecast to emerge.

More coming up from 8am EST where we will see what the next wave of data brings us, with the weather system moving out off the NSW coast during mid week, the system over the central interior of the nation will become clearer as we go along.


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