The weather resuming Summer time expectations with a longer period of drier air, high pressure and temperatures near to above normal as a we see a slow moving ridge move slowly through the state and sit higher over eastern Australia, allowing for a more traditional period of Summer weather.

The moisture is leaving the far north and entering the southern NT today and this will continue to move northwards. The weather is likely to remain dry and hot until about mid next week.

That is when we see the next trough emerge out of WA and that system at this time looks weak and there is no moisture to work with just yet, so very isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.

So for those who have been belted by rainfall, this is the forecast for you.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is lean and many areas should be rain free during the coming 10 days. There may be an isolated shower or thunderstorm about the far west mid to late next week with some drizzle possible about the south and southeast coast. Otherwise it is dry for many.


Refer to the video for more details on the daily breakdown.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details in the video but to repeat, a quieter week period with drier air over the southern 2/3rds of the nation. The northern third remains humid and unsettled with a monsoon trough nearby and another trough over the east will weaken as a high moves over the south and east reducing the showery weather.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The significant moisture is continuing to push north through the nation and take a look at the GFS suggesting that conditions are going to reflect early Autumn across the nation with very dry air even into the medium term. Not so sure on that still, given that the MJO rotates around the ensemble data sets are wetter than the single runs which populate all the wonderful apps, so caution required in interpreting the data. The short term at least out to about 10 days will be drier and quieter through the southern two thirds. More humid in the east with a few showers and onshore winds and heavier moisture should be in play over northern Australia, regardless of what this says.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More details coming up from 8am EDT.

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