The upper ridge and surface ridge firmly planted through Central Australia and extending through the Bight and to the east, sending the state into a stable and drier easterly flow. With the sinking air motion, the skies should remain mostly clear.
In the short term, over the coming 2 days, there may be a rogue shower or thunderstorm complex over far northeast SA as the upper trough moves through to QLD and NSW. That activity should move off by the weekend.
Watching the northern tropics, out to the west as well and through eastern areas next week as moisture begins to creep in from all angles, but at this time, the weather looks to stay dry for the coming week but there may be better opportunity for rainfall to return through the state by mid next week.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is non existent for much of the state, but we could see some rainfall return in the day 7-10 window over southern areas as a middle level trough approaches and begins to tap into the moisture spilling over from Victoria. The rainfall looks light at this time but this may change.
Over the northeast, an upper trough could produce a few showers and thunderstorms in the Moomba region and points north and east during the coming 2 days. The risk of thunderstorms is low to moderate at this time.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms may develop over the far northeast during the afternoon and evening as an upper trough begins to move into east of the state and taps into moisture over the eastern inland. Storms will be isolated IF they develop.
Flash Flood Risk Tuesday
A very low chance of flash flooding with thunderstorms over remote areas in the northeast but more likely into QLD and NSW.
DATA - Refer to video for more information and the daily breakdown
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
A dynamic weather situation is unfolding across the nation over the coming 10 days and many areas will see 1-2 months worth of rainfall through northern and eastern VIC, much of inland NSW, through inland QLD and much of the tropics. This is in line with the wet signals off the global models and the climate drivers and should come as no surprise here as we have been talking about the wet end to February and start of March for some time. The weather is supportive of severe weather developing as well as riverine flooding developing as well. More to come on that through the days ahead and more analysis in the video.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks
The very deep moisture profile over much of Australia looks more likely to be with us for the next 10-15 days, especially over northern and eastern Australia where low pressure is in place and likely to remain, leading to the moisture being lifted into above average rainfall and thunderstorms. This reflects the above average moisture content in line with a waning La Nina phase.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for further analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for further analysis
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
Refer to video for further analysis and the fly around with your state and further details.
A closer look in - the numbers are starting to tick up a bit for eastern areas but I am not willing to draw it on the charts just yet, will review more data sets and update in the morning.
More coming up in the models and rainfall analysis for the coming short, medium and longer term data and tomorrow more details from 8am EDT.