SA - DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, BUT SURPRISE FALLS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST.

There is a trough lingering through the eastern areas over the coming days and some spill over of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the far east bordering NSW and VIC during the next couple of days.


On the weekend, there is another middle level trough moving through the region with the moisture lingering from this first system, possibly producing another round of showers and storms, mainly over the east.


For now the rest of the state is dry and hot with easterly winds persisting.


Later next week, there may be a shift in conditions with a westerly change following a week front and a new ridge passing through the Bight, which may produce a few light showers for the south and a reduction in heat and humidity.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very lean over the northern and western districts of the state. For southern and eastern areas of the state, scattered showers and storms are possible about the border areas in the east with a few rogue showers along the southeast and south coast. Otherwise the rainfall is likely to stay further through NSW and VIC for now while. But the confidence is not especially high at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms may clip the far eastern areas of the state during the afternoon and evening with light falls for the most part if anything develops. But in these situations expect the unexpected.

DATA - Refer to video for more information regarding the short and medium term daily break down and much more.


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The surface pressure pattern remains of low confidence, very complex which means that areas under severe weather potential need to pay attention to the forecast guidance, warnings and weather radar very closely over the coming days. Some areas could see high end severe weather, so if you are living under warning or excessive rainfall and thunderstorm potential, be weather aware. The west and south central areas look mostly dry and quiet. Another trough next week over the southeast offers another round of severe weather potential with severe thunderstorm activity. That system could produce more flooding issues for some parts of the southeast as well if it is allowed to pull in the moisture from the north and northeast. Tropical weather highly volatile and this will produce severe weather up north, but the track is undetermined meaning that anywhere from Darwin through to Broome need to watch closely. If that tropical low northwest of Darwin moves west bound, then rainfall numbers and moisture will start to come up for WA into March.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Very deep moisture at near record levels along the east coast will lead to above average to near record rainfall potential rivalling last years flood events. So be weather aware in these regions along the east coast. The moisture from the northeast winds will fuel an upper trough over the inland and you can see that take place on this animation. Drier air trapped back over south central and through southern WA and into the central interior. The moisture may begin to shift around the nation depending on the tracks of tropical weather over the north.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

CMC 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - the forecast confidence for the east coast is high confidence for further heavy rainfall in the east but for us we sit right on the edge of the rainfall if you believe this but confidence is low.

More coming up with the rainfall and model wrap after 8pm EDT, it will be interesting reading and reflection.



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