SA - COLDER WEATHER EASING AND WARMING UP OVER THE NORTH - RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK?

A dry cold southerly is in place, bringing well below average temperatures today, setting the scene for frost to redevelop over parts of the Ag areas tonight and again Thursday morning, mainly in the east. Some of the frosts could be quite heavy.


The weather benign as forecast for the past week for the coming 5-7 days with high pressure moving through but sliding off to the southeast and south of the state, leading to an easterly shift, lifting the chance of rainfall over the north and east of the nation as humidity increases.


It is out of that shift, that rainfall hopefully, with a bit of luck will return in around one week from now


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall may come back to the southeast districts later this week into the weekend with a front passing through with a weak cold front. The rest of the state, you are dry for a week. The next chance of rain comes from a shift to easterly winds and showers may redevelop along the east coast and again over the southwest of the nation, we sit in between at this time in the coming 7-8 days. But the coverage of rainfall is approaching from the west, north and east, just outside of this window. The forecast will become better defined over the coming days, I wish it was originating over SA for those that need the rainfall, however the current data has it evolving around the region before passing over or converging in the day 9-10 window. I am not willing to draw it in yet but you can see the potential on various models and once there is better agreement in the shorter term (ie within 7 days) that is when I will issue the regional charts.

Frost Forecast Wednesday Morning

The winds are likely to drop out overnight and into Wednesday morning with the high risk of severe frost developing in sheltered pockets along the divide. Heavy frosts throughout the southeast and eastern inland is likely, but may be below severe thresholds with a parcel of low level moisture coming in overnight, however there is still a chance of severe frosts along the plains, so be aware overnight and into the morning. Heavier frosts for SA will be mainly in the east and southeast inland.

Frost Forecast Thursday Morning

Frost again a significant risk on Thursday morning with the passage of the high pressure system moving through overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Frost could be significant over the ranges in Victoria and into NSW. The risk may be pulled back further west over areas such as SA and western border communities if the warming trend rapidly shifts. Frost risks may be drawn out of SA IF the trend in warming continues in modelling tomorrow morning.

DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern is dry for much of the nation over the coming 5 days, with a large centre of high pressure coming in, combining with the dry air to bring clear skies. Frost will be widespread and could be heavy over the southern and eastern inland of the nation Wednesday and Thursday morning. Some frosts could be heavy. Then warming up through the week, away from the southeast where onshore winds will continue the shower coverage and cloud. Next week the pattern turns and in line with the GFS, the majority of wet weather begins over the eastern seaboard and inland of NSW and QLD with another trough developing over the southwest with showers and thunderstorms about. All of this weather is expected to converge through the Central parts of the nation and then spread throughout the eastern and southern inland.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

Moisture is limited through the nation through until the weekend as high pressure and dry trapped under the high dominates for the rest of the week. The moisture will return via the easterly winds and the Indian Ocean during the weekend and next week. The wet weather will be associated with where the moisture moves and that looks more likely through the eastern inland of the nation and over the southwest to start with and as you can see, travel eastwards from there on. Refer to the GFS to see the possible wetter outcomes in the video.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Next 10 days

Good agreement between GFS and the Euro with the flow pattern over the nation resulting in dry weather nationwide until the weekend or early next week when we see the showers return over the east and with a trough over the southwest with thundery showers possible. Like GFS the trough out west looks to merge with the trough in the east with the chance of rainfall coming up over the southern and eastern states. Refer to the GFS in the video to compare and I am siding with the GFS solution at this time.

Watching this trough over WA as this will be the catalyst for rainfall in SA.

GFS 2 Week Rainfall - I will have more on the models later on this evening to contrast and compare on all things rainfall nationwide.

More after 9pm

43 views5 comments