SA - COLDER CHANGE DEVELOPING FOR LATER SATURDAY - BUT WHAT ABOUT THE RAIN NEXT WEEK!?

It is turning sharply colder through the weekend into next week with light rainfall expected for many locations, better coverage over the Lower SE. But really inland areas are expected to remain dry for the next week....AT THIS STAGE.


Now there are a few troughs wafting about the region in the short and medium term, some may produce some high based showers and storms as early as mid week, depending upon the Tasman Sea, whether we see a low and high block the movement of weather out of the north and west.


Regardless the rainfall chances are creeping up through the outlook period so lets take a look.

Rainfall next 10 days

The rainfall is lean as mentioned for the past week over inland parts off SA, no change in that for the coming 5 days at least, but we are seeing some rumblings of middle level instability I may introduce unsettled weather for the northwest in coming days if that trend continues, that will be for mid to late week. A stronger system develops from the west this time next week and this holds great potential for rainfall. Due to a lot of emotion out there regarding rainfall, lots riding on it, I will be very careful in forecasting numbers and reiterate that I can be far more specific once a system is on the board and can be tracked in real time. So stay tuned but the bottom line is, the rainfall chances are coming up.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

An active trough and front to pass through the southeast this weekend has remained largely unchanged in modelling, perhaps a tad better coverage of showers coming through southeast NSW Sunday into Monday. Then drier weather for southern and western Australia through the first half of this week coming while the east coast sees showers developing in onshore winds. Again the battle of the Tasman Sea and the frontal weather passing over WA from mid next week the major features to watch to determine the coverage of rainfall from this time next week over desperate parts of SA and through the eastern inland into next weekend. The tropics, humid and unsettled from Sunday and through next week as the build up continues.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall largely confined to the southeast coastal areas this weekend while the rest of the nation remains dry under high pressure. Then we see a high move into the southeast clearing skies, but sending onshore winds and bringing coastal wet weather to NSW and southern QLD. Trade winds over QLD running moisture through the north of the nation and then the next major front will roll through WA mid next week and that clearly is the point of interest for many areas downstream of that system rolling through. Where does the rainfall initiate over the east is determined by what happens over the Tasman Sea as outlined in the video and in previous analysis.

Remainder of the state.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The PW anomalies stay persistently drier than normal through early next week over the east, but starting to transition a little earlier over the western and central inland, giving rise to high based showers and cloudy skies. A strong cold front will act as a pulling mechanism to drag moisture from the tropics into WA and through SA and then the southeast. Where the cold front meets that moisture determines rainfall spread. This stage, it is as per yesterday a line ball for SA with the bulk of the wet weather, further east through the state and once again into the eastern inland, but this will most likely chop and change. The tropics are becoming soupy and unstable throughout the outlook, feeding more moisture south through the nation.

I will have another update during Saturday - have a great weekend!!


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