The weather is tending much more settled this week, giving everyone a chance to get out and survey the impacts of the cold and wet weather across the state. After the above average rainfall, we are trending dry until the weekend.

High pressure is expected to move in from the west bringing calm clear conditions for the state. The high moves into the east of the nation from mid week sending the winds into the north and northeast, that will see temperatures resemble values close to November expectations.

A trough in WA will approach from later this week with showers and thunderstorms developing over inland areas of the state and then tracking southeast, however rainfall coverage is not expected to be as widespread nor as heavy at this time. But keep watching this week.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is lean for the coming working week which was expected in the medium term forecasts posted here late October so now we move into a settled period, while the nation's moisture profile resets. We will see limited cloud cover or moisture until later this week and once we see a trough develop out of the heat profile in WA, that will bring instability and if moisture can surge into this feature, this will increase rainfall chances later this week into the weekend from the west. The weather is not expected to be severe at this time.

DATA - Refer to video for more details

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution -Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern begins to relax from Monday with the high over WA moving towards the east and we finally see the weather turn more stable over the southeast and east with easing showers and winds. Temperatures will remain below average for the first half of this week but the weather out west will be opposite. Warm to start but then tending cooler. The tropics hot and dry, could be some records once again (which plays well into the nation again turning more unstable into the medium term). A trough develops over the interior of WA with that system moving into the east during mid week, and finds better moisture rotating around a high, thanks to easterly winds developing. This trough will deepen over the latter part of this week, but part will pass through the southeast on Friday, another part will hang back over WA and SA through the weekend. It is tricky to pin down which feature will bring more rainfall. The GFS shows more rainfall in the second feature where the Euro has better falls on both systems for eastern WA, SA, VIC and NSW. The Euro below is much wetter and I am not quite drawing these totals yet but it is something to watch. Regardless the nation turns more unsettled and humid as advised last week, from around the 19-20th of November and persist to the end of the month. Also the Euro does not quite have the tropical weather offshore northern Australia like the GFS and CMC so again that feature may be something to watch as well this week.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The drier airmass over the nation will continue to dominate through mid week, but notice the moisture returns over WA and again over northern and eastern Australia. The weather will turn more humid as we go through the latter part of the week and that is thanks to an injection of moisture passing from the Indian Ocean into the western and central interior. The east will see easterly winds pump moisture into the eastern inland and the tropics also getting more active. Overall the nation is turning more humid and building up to levels we saw in the past 10 days. So again we have a small window of drier air and less rainfall, but it is not lasting long.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The PW values are below average. The moisture values will remain low as we track through the coming 3-4 days but the moisture values flip rapidly and by next weekend, we will be back to many areas in seasonal conditions but a tropical feeling with more rain and thunderstorms impacting large parts of southern and eastern Australia and the tropics. These moisture values will continue to increase over the back half of the month.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details on short and medium term rainfall

A closer look in - this forecast will change rapidly this week - so stay up to date.

More details coming up after 9pm tonight on all things models and the rainfall potential.

26 views0 comments