SA - COLD NIGHTS BUT DAYS GETTING WARMER - PATCHY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

The weather has cleared over coastal areas as the atmosphere warms up and the high pressure rolls into the region, that brings clearer skies and settled weather. The weather is expected to turn very warm to hot, some locations in the north could get up to 13C above average with high 30s this Thursday/Friday in a northwest flow ahead of a change.


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Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Rainfall is lean and limited to coastal areas, as the system that is approaching during mid week remains decoupled from moisture. That said, areas over the NE Pastoral district could see moderate falls again as the trough sharpens as it heads into NSW. Over coastal areas, dry air will undermine rainfall chances later this week. Another front to roll through this time next week also underwhelming in terms of widespread rainfall but light rainfall can be expected for coastal areas.

Agricultural Areas.

Upper and Lower Southeast.

Northeast Pastoral

Frost Forecast Tuesday morning.

The frost risk is elevated over eastern areas and for parts of the Flinders. Severe frosts are possible along the VIC border.

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - next 10 days

The cold air pool over NSW is now on the way towards the east and the rest of the nation is now in sinking air motion under high pressure. A colder southerly is working its way north through the east. In the west, temperatures are on the rise as the winds veer into the northeast in coming days ahead of the next major front which is expected to bring widespread showers and storms through the region. The front will then move east but be forced southeast by high pressure blocking the Tasman and a strong upper high over the nation. The front and trough will still bring down moisture from the northwest and patchy rainfall under a large cloud band is likely for inland SA but more widespread over NSW and northern VIC. The weather remains dry for much of inland Australia during the coming 10 days with dry air damming. Up north, the build up preview will soon be flushed out by drier air later this week, but return in a week's time, so the seasons are shifting. A follow up front next week may reinforce below average temperatures for coastal areas from WA through to the southeast with light rainfall.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

This paints the picture well, with drier air over the nation at the moment being propelled north by southerly winds as high pressure digs in from the west and a cold front surges through the Tasman. The weather controlled by high pressure leading to sinking air motion so clear skies expected. Otherwise the next major pulse of moisture comes down from the Indian Ocean later this week and that looks better with regards to the IOD. The only issue is that it is decoupled from the cold front and low so not much rainfall but a lot of cloud will form. Then moisture may return via easterly winds over northern and eastern Australia next week while frontal weather and southwest winds keeps the drier air surging through southern and central parts of the nation, the battle between the airmasses continues.

Euro 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall as mentioned above in my forecast, limited to coastal areas and focussed mainly with the system rolling in from WA mid week and into the southeast during Friday and into the weekend. Then not much next week.

I will have another update at 9pm looking at the rainfall from all modelling - harvest is coming soon and people need to know the latest so this should be appointment reading - it is not a tome of reading but important information.


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