SA - CLOUD DECREASING OVER THE SOUTH - WARMER WEATHER DEVELOPING

The drier weather to continue for this week, the large high right on top of us today will continue its slow progress towards the east during mid to late week, a warmer northwesterly flow developing bringing an increase in temperatures.


Some hints the weekend system could be stronger over the southeast, but once again the likely bigger impacts in terms of rainfall will be over VIC and TAS with a drop in temperatures expected over the weekend.


Next week there are signals for moisture to build up again and perhaps an organised batch of rainfall for some is possible.


ANALYSIS

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Frost Forecast Wednesday Morning.

The frost risk likely further east during Wednesday morning as the high takes a journey overhead overnight and then to the east. The heavier frosts expected over the eastern border with NSW and VIC. Cloud cover and a breeze over the Lower SE will save the region from a frost.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Sitting under the high pressure ridge for the best part of the next 5 days with systems rotating through the westerly wind regime during the coming few days, with the systems far too south to have much impact on the region. Moisture begins to develop later in the period over inland areas of the NT and QLD and some of this may begin to sweep southeast and south through the nation. Some evidence during the past day of modelling for rainfall possibly returning in about a week with a trough passing through, perhaps tapping into that moisture diving south.

Southeast SA and Southwest VIC.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 weeks

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 7-14 2021

Temperature Anomalies Following Week - September 15-22 2021


DATA

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

You can compare with the GFS to see they are in full agreement until the weekend with the weather diverging on modelling, especially in the east. The GFS passes through the cold front with a blast of showery wintry weather for the southeast as an open wave with no low pressure, allowing the weather to be more mobile throughout the outlook period. Not much rainfall expected for inland areas under this guidance. It does have good rainfall in the short term for the SWLD of WA with a front passing over during Thursday but sliding off to the southeast with no impact for SA and the southeast states until a follow up front arrives during the weekend, that is the system with very poor guidance across all modelling at the moment.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Comparing to the GFS the weather is well modelled until Friday and Saturday with the system rotating through the southeast with a decent cold outbreak with showery weather for the southeast while the west turns back to dry. Then the system is expected to develop into a low pressure system, this time more offshore the coast, hence less rainfall for inland areas of the east, as expected. The volatility in the modelling will continue. For the remainder of the nation, rather settled under a continuous belt of high pressure and dry air. The weather over the north will turn humid with showers returning to the northern NT and QLD.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much for areas away from the coastline with the cold fronts passing over the southeast perhaps bringing the most widespread rainfall for VIC and TAS with a potential low pressure system bringing rainfall back to NSW. Though for us it is dry for a while still, the next opportunity for rainfall perhaps mid to late next week with a front storming in from the west but the confidence in forecasting remains low beyond Sunday at this time.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The battle between the drier air and the moisture over the north and east will continue for the coming 10 days, though it will be just outside of this window that the moisture deepens across the nation with a more favourable pressure pattern developing with high pressure pushing further south.

I will have another update on the full model spread regarding rainfall after 9pm tonight.

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