The wet signal and warmer signal continues for the spring period, thanks to the warmer than normal Indian Ocean and SSTs around a lot of Australia. The weather is expected to be quite active as we go through Spring with the wettest weather expected through September through October with August the month of transition at this time.
Seasonal Outlook - Rainfall - August to October 2021
% chance of deviating from the median rainfall for the period
The wet signal continues for SA with large parts of the Outback expected to see well above average rainfall, as the Indian Ocean Dipole continues to strengthen through the coming months. The rainfall will eventually spill over to the agricultural areas of South Australia and through to western NSW and north-western Victoria, as the moisture continues to build over inland areas, in response to the moisture increasing hand and hand with the temperatures rising.
The peak of the Indian Ocean dipole is expected through late September or through October which means the rainfall will likely peak from that point onwards, the lag effect from that peak lasting until early December.
While we won't totally lose the cold fronts and blustery westerly winds, this seasonal shift will mean that those fronts will become less frequent and intense during the coming months, however they will be with us for the best part of the next four to six weeks through southern areas. That could help to drag in the moisture and rainfall from north-western Australia as the Indian Ocean continues to warm.
Seasonal Outlook - Temperatures - August to October 2021
% chance of deviating from the median temperatures for the period
Temperature-wise through most of SA it looks to be seasonal. Slightly cooler through the coming weeks for southern areas, but overall, it looks to be near average for southern areas.
For inland areas this is conditional, the outlook is dependent upon how much cloud develops through the interior in relation to the moisture feed from the Indian ocean. That will determine how much heat is drawn to south, and whether that will lead to a string of above average temperatures being verified in the areas forecast to be cooler than normal.