After the high heat today over parts of the west, with near record values for this time of year about the Nullabor, things are set to become milder with a westerly change from later this evening.
We can already see the increase of high and middle level cloud as that moisture begins to drift south and east, meeting that wind change and front over the southeast Friday to allow for scattered showers and storms about. Sadly for many in SA, this system will peak further east which has been modelled well for the past week, there was some hope it would shift back west, not likely I am afraid.
Sunday into Monday we have a cold blast of air that is surging north behind a front over the southeast, this could bring the chance of showers back to southern Ag areas with up to 5mm possible now with that feature in SOME locations, 10-20mm over the Lower Southeast.
Lets take a look
Rainfall next 10 days
The rainfall is sadly mostly light and patchy on Friday with the bulk of it falling over areas east and north of Adelaide for now. Some of the storms along the VIC and NSW border may have moderate rainfall with gusty winds. Then a stronger front passing through on Sunday into Monday, offers the chance of showery periods for southern Ag areas with moderate falls over the SE Districts. More rainfall opportunities lurk beyond this forecast window.
Upper and Lower SE
Farmers and Graziers - Monday to Wednesday.
The worst of the colder air should be east of SA but the Southeast Districts are still being drawn in the very high contour for now with some risk the front may slow down further in coming days. So this is a heads up forecast for early next week. Severe frosts could also develop behind this front bringing up the chance of damage to crops, again mainly in the east.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a moisture surge passing southeast over the state into the eastern inland of the nation. Some of the thunderstorms could be gusty with damaging squalls, lifting the risk of dust and reduced visibility. Rainfall is expected to be light given the storms are elevated Friday.
00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days
The weather is largely unchanged from this morning, the high pressure is moving eastwards this evening finally making way for the trough and front to approach the southeast later tomorrow. That will be the focus of the wet weather for the weekend. Another front is expected next week over the southeast bringing bitterly cold late wintry weather for the south and east. Meanwhile a high to the west of Adelaide will keep the remainder of the nation dry and settled for most of next week. A slow clearing trend is expected for the southeast and it will take a while to recover from the cold temperatures of Monday. Moisture looks to return for the nation later next week into the weekend, as the SAM trends positive and the high pressure begins to sit further south and the prevailing winds shift into the east. Dry weather for the tropics too, perhaps the last burst of dry season weather for the season.
00z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
The PW Anomalies continue to support a drier surge of air rolling through the southern and eastern inland of the nation bringing well below average temperatures and suppressing rainfall chances away from coastal areas. As we saw with the GFS and you can see below, the difference in the rainfall distribution and potential is connected to the moisture over the inland, does it get absorbed into the follow up system and lifted into rain areas over northern NSW and southern QLD or does it stay back over the west of the nation with no precipitation from this high PW value? Later in the period, moisture does return as the high shfits east and places the nation back into a prevailing easterly wind regime. Moisture may also be drawn into the mid latitude westerly winds and bring middle and upper level moisture back through southern Australia, possibly feeding troughs that could form in the eastern wind pattern over the nation.
00z Euro - Rainfall - Next 10 days
More notes on rainfall differences between the GFS and Euro for the eastern states can be found in the weather video. Also note the rainfall coming up for parts of SA in the medium term. Keeping watching.
00z GFS - Rainfall - Next 16 days
Latest Model Wrap on all the rainfall data coming up after 9pm tonight.