SA - BRIGHTER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK BUT RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INCREASING THIS WEEKEND.

The short window of drier milder and brighter weather is set to continue through into mid week with a high pressure system moving through from the west and through to the east by Wednesday.


The temperatures set to tend more seasonal by the time we get to Thursday with a northeast flow. The weather also turning more humid under this flow. The moisture of interest is coming in from the northwest of the nation thanks to tropical waves off the WA coast and that will be the seeding element into the trough coming in from later this week.


So expecting to see mild and rainy weather developing from the west Thursday and Friday with the rainfall increasing and potentially heavy over Agricultural areas later Friday through Saturday before clearing later Saturday.


Another low pressure system is expected to develop over northern and eastern areas from early next week with another batch of rain and storms developing for the eastern 2/3rds of the state with further moderate falls developing.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to develop from later this week, with moderate to heavy falls developing for the southern and southeastern areas primarily with this feature, the northern areas not seeing as much but certainly, where it does rain efficiently, some areas could get a month's worth of rainfall with this feature. The next rainfall event is also within the coming 10 days which is over northern and eastern areas, but some of the rainfall may extend further south but the placement of that feature is heavily dependent on what happens with the first feature, but all of a sudden as mentioned through the past week, the dry phase is shorter than what models were touting.

DATA - Looking at the GFS tonight - you can find more details in the video above.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The moisture builds up to excessive levels through the medium term and while the rainfall prognostics look lighter than previous runs, the moisture values scream higher rainfall potential, so this forecast will continue to evolve.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Excessive values return to the north and note the surge of moisture coming through WA and through the Coral Sea into QLD through the end of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in - these values will change.

More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT. Also the 6 Week Outlook to be updated tomorrow as well.



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