SA - BENIGN AND DRY UNDER RIDGING FOR A WHILE.

The tail end of a trough is producing a few showers and thunderstorms over the coming day or two for outback areas, but the risk is so low and impacting barely anyone, that is not even worth mentioning.


However, given that the forecast is fairly benign and rinse and repeat with a large scale high over the region, there is not much interesting on the horizon, for at least the next 7 days.


Watching the moisture out of WA to see if that can be pulled into the state and ahead of a cold front, for now, that is one of the only ways to get rainfall back onto the forecasts. The high is the dominant feature for the next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very lean with most areas post the lingering light rain in the east and southeast tonight, going rain free for the coming week at least. We could see moisture entering the far west during the early part of next week, that depends on the oscillation of the high pressure to the south of WA. If that moves through quicker then we could have the door opened to moisture coming out of the Indian Ocean at the end of next week lifting rainfall chances.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There are more details in the weather video but overall not much change to the overall confidence of the forecast package ahead. There are the main areas to watch, the area to the west of WA with the remains of Charlotte feeding the jet stream and pumping moisture into a trough over the inland could bring the best rainfall chances to the SWLD in months. The east coast tending wetter as we go in the days ahead with a deepening southeast to easterly flow feeding a trough over the inland seeing showers increasing and thunderstorms also returning to some locations of NSW and QLD. Tropical weather also raising an eyebrow with the chance of a second tropical low/cyclone forming off the coast of the NT next week. Otherwise in much of SA, western and northern VIC, southern and western NSW, western QLD and into the southern NT, fairly dry under ridging.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

No change to the guidance from this morning, with the confidence on the synoptic scale rather low that means all elements do carry a low risk of verifying. Though one area that looks to be drier is around SA and through the western parts of VIC and NSW/QLD. Elsewhere, mixed odds and really coming down to the mesoscale details. A better way of looking at the moisture content against averages is the anomalies, and this highlights why SA is looking so dry, as it just cannot shake the drier air in the short term, but things change as they will, in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis - note the rainfall across the country not as amplified as the GFS.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the forecast will continue to carry a low confidence strap with numbers all over the board. More details in the video and information coming up after 9pm EDT tonight.

I will have more coming up tonight in a brief look at the broader rainfall data sets after 9pm EDT but another large scale update coming your way during Wednesday morning from 8am EDT.



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