SA - BECOMING DRIER THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE WEATHER TURNS AGAIN NEXT WEEK FOR THE SOUTH

The weather has been surprisingly unsettled with reasonable rainfall for many Ag areas in recent days. Some locations have also surpassed their March rainfall which is also impressive in the absence of a major rainfall event moving through.


For the state, we will see the showers decrease overnight and again tomorrow as well. There will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Flinders, Mid North and Riverlands tomorrow afternoon but once again light falls expected if anything, and one or two locations may cop it.


The weekend is forecast to be dry, warm to hot and mostly sunny as a drier airmass moves in with a northwest to northerly flow developing. A cold front and trough over the Bight will bring a cloud band through southern areas of the state. Some light rain may begin to develop from late Monday as the trough and front begins to move east and north.


A cooler change will filter through the south of the state from Tuesday with a few showers and gusty westerly winds. Not overly heavy rainfall expected but there could be a large cloud band develop along the boundary between the cooler air and hot air over the state. Some light falls can be expected from this.


Another front may approach the Bight once again mid to late week with yet another band of cloud and gusty winds developing, but other models are supporting the idea of an upper low developing over SA with rain developing over the north. So the divergence in the modelling means that any forecast beyond about 5 days is quite low confidence and will likely change.


That can be frustrating, but it also shows that we are now starting to see the rumblings of a change of season, maybe even the Autumn Break for some possible if you believe some of the modelling.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains a very low confidence forecast I am afraid with the guidance quite poor. That is not unexpected based off the commentary here this week. Now there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms over the the Flinders and points east. That will be the case again on Saturday before the weak trough pushes north on Sunday into QLD. Then we watch the series of troughs passing over the southern parts of the state during next week. The question remains, do we see moisture being dragged in from the northwest Indian Ocean into the interior and then linking up with the troughs and frontal weather running from west to east over the nation. Certainly, that is an idea that could emerge from next weekend, for the most part next week looks fairly benign for now.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

A moderate chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Mid North through the Flinders, into the Riverlands and Murraylands again but the coverage isolated and most areas should miss out. No severe weather is expected at this time, but as we saw last night, expect the unexpected when it comes to thunderstorms.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more information in the video and to cut down the reading, once again due to low confidence this forecast output from the GFS will change meaning your rainfall, temperatures and humidity values presented on some of the apps available to you are flawed as this will not happen. Refer to the video for more details as to where things are headed across the nation.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content is all over the board from run to run beyond 5 days so unfortunately we have to be patient for another 2 days I reckon before we get more clarity on conditions for next week. But it is important to watch the videos to keep up to date with trends to see where things are likely to head.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

More on another brief look at the longer term ensemble models after 9pm EDT tonight. Until we get more clarity it will be low confidence forecasting for most areas of the nation, which is normal for this time of year.



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