Ridging and the introduction of very dry air over much of the state is leading to a settled and dry spell with temperatures on the climb. As mentioned through the weekend and into next week, this pattern is unlikely to break down for the coming 7-10 days for the state and therefore rainfall and thunderstorm activity not expected for many areas during this time.

A weak trough passing through during Wednesday may squeeze out a few elevated thundery showers and a cooler change but overall the pattern is supportive of not much rainfall and warmer than average temperatures returning through this period.

The pattern is unlikely to breakdown during this time

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is unlikely for many areas for the coming 7-10 days with ridging and dry air. A weak trough passing through the coming few days may squeeze out a few light falls over the southern and western areas of the state but really most areas will go dry through this time. The pattern is likely to breakdown in the medium term.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Elevated thunderstorms are possibly as a wind change moves through western and southern parts of SA during Tuesday. The airmass ahead of the wind shift is very dry so any rainfall that does fall will be light and thunderstorms more likely to be dry with dry lightning and gusty winds.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown in the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern once again largely unchanged from this morning so the persistence forecast continues. You can catch more in the daily breakdown, but at this stage the low confidence forecast strap continues.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The dry airmass looks set to reign for the coming week at least before we see conditions slowly recover over northern and western Australia and this spreads east and southeast in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the forecast is of low confidence and I cannot stress anything beyond about the 7 day mark is likely to change.

More details coming up from 8am EDT. The weather remains very quiet so until there are themes in the medium term that are gathering pace around rainfall, I will introduce the rainfall and model posts. For now there is too much divergence. Tomorrow is Climate Update Tuesday. So look out for that.

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