SA - BACK TO QUIET FOR A WHILE WITH RIDGING AND DRY AIR.

After that above average rainfall once again for parts of the Eyre Peninsula, the state as a whole has started to turn back to dry as ridging over the Bight and an upper ridge over the state combine with dry air to see clear and sunny skies continue for the remainder of the week, into the weekend and for a good portion of next week. Some of the model data supports the whole state staying dry until the first week of March.


At this stage, I am not as convinced on the state going rain free over the coming 10 days, with moisture and showers/storms beginning to move south and southwest from QLD and the NT as unsettled weather increases on the periphery of the upper high.


For now, the coming week is quiet but lets take a look at the pattern into the medium term to see when the weather is likely to shift and how conditions are expected to get.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is lean to non existent for most locations over the coming week with ridging throughout much of the atmosphere, setting up camp over the region. It is unlikely that widespread rainfall will develop during this time. However I am drawing in lighter falls over the far east and north with isolated showers and thunderstorms expected to emerge later next week as troughs begin to move closer to the region, bringing in the deeper moisture profile. Rainfall is likely to develop after this period in the first week of March.

DATA - Refer to video for further analysis and comparison in the model data


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

No change to the guidance from the short term but I will focus on the medium term, looking at the tropical weather now throwing some interesting solutions onto the table, these will chop and change so do not be seduced by them yet, but be aware that the tropics will be influencing rainfall late February into early March. East coast of NSW and QLD looking wet with onshore winds and showery periods with the positive SAM. That signal is increasing now on most modelling. There will be tropical moisture coming southbound in the medium term but where that occurs remains to be seen but be aware there are severe weather events now starting to appear on the charts and more details on that can be found in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The biggest shift from this morning is the moisture spreading from north to south in the modelling, now the location of this will chop and change. But it highlights the influence of the MJO being in phase in conjunction with the positive SAM. This opens the gates for moisture to pool and remain stagnant over the nation in the absence of cold fronts to sweep the moisture out. We saw the impacts of that in January and that was quite disruptive and damaging to many inland areas. So it is important to be weather aware. Exceptional moisture content is appearing on some of the charts but caution is advised on anything more than broad analysis, it is too difficult to be specific right now but the potential is there for some nasty weather events for parts of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further analysis and your fly around.

A closer look in - as mentioned this will continue to chop and change and the placement of any wild card tropical systems will result in a narrow band of heavy rainfall coming through interior parts and spreading the rainfall into the east. Also note the SAM over the eastern areas.

I will have a look at the modelling and all things rainfall tonight after 9pm EDT as we are starting to see values come up and more analysis coming up from 8am EDT Friday.





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