And warmer too. Not a great deal of rainfall this week, the numbers have come on the data sets since we last looked in greater detail on Friday. We may see the blocking pattern in the Tasman Sea just hold the system from WA out and force a lot of the lifting mechanism to the south. However, moisture is likely to be drawn through the upper level winds into the state, it is just dead air, meaning no real lifting mechanism.

After a few warm to hot days, I am still bringing in the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms with a milder south to southeasterly change.

Watch the humidity and storms over the western, northern and northeast inland of the nation as the pattern begins to shift into the summer time feel. This is normal and results in a drier period for parts of the southeast as this gets underway. We may see warmer weather again into the end of the month ahead of a wet end to the month or that could be delayed into November.

Plenty to look at - so this is the latest.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall lean, but no unusual after what has been an active week as the atmosphere begins to respond with high pressure over the region. That will lead to drier weather over the course this week. A few showers and thunderstorms may move across the state from Wednesday into Thursday with isolated moderate falls but they will be hard to find. Then drier once again into the weekend. But watch moisture off to the west and north during this period and into the final week, there is a lot just off to the north and west which may seep south.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are a low chance during Monday afternoon over the far east bordering VIC and over the northeast with another upper trough moving away. Otherwise no rainfall of significance at this stage.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Things are settling down from this week over the interior which will extend into western parts of NSW and most of SA with an upper high setting up camp. We are seeing a strong low pressure system and cold front coming into SWLD of WA which will drive a large rainband over the state during Tuesday with that system running into a blocking pattern in the east mid week. That blocking pattern will set up camp from tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms on the trough passing in from the west and then sitting offshore during mid week. That trough may form into a low bringing coastal showers and thunder through mid week. Then the remnants of the trough will pass from SA in dry fashion and hit moisture over the east during later this week with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing for NSW and QLD. The north is expected to be unsettled with widespread showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls. That moisture will slowly seep through the west of the nation on the western face of the upper high over SA keeping the moisture over WA with storms developing.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture is expected to deepen over western parts of the nation with a strong cold front passing through from the Indian Ocean with a deep moisture supply. The moisture is expected to thin out as we track the system through the BIght and into the southeast, unfortunately you can see the block in the Tasman Sea deflecting the moisture south of the mainland. Over the east and north, deeper moisture will pool as the trades return and the tropical northeast to easterly flow establishes. The weather over the west will also become more humid as the moisture travels west and into the southwest of the state through next week. You can pick up the upper high over SA ingesting the dry air from the Tasman Sea as the low pressure that forms later this week moves off to NZ leaving a mild and dry airmass under the high keeping the eastern inland quiet for now.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

As expected, you can track the dry slot over inland SA and western NSW as the upper high sits over the eastern inland with not much rainfall expected. The coastal areas of northern and eastern Australia will see the bulk of the rainfall from showers and thunderstorms. The bigger rainfall event is over the southwest of the nation with a strong cold front and low pressure system drawing in a deep moisture load into a cold front, producing the most widespread rainfall. Otherwise the rainfall will return to the southeast and eastern inland of the nation towards the end of the month.

A closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more at the top of the page.

More details to come tomorrow morning from 7am.

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