SA - A DRIER SOUTHERLY CHANGE DUE THIS WEEKEND WITH MILDER WEATHER.

That change however, could spark a significant rain band over the far southeast and east of SA with locally heavy falls straddling the VIC border as the system amplifies as it rolls into the moisture left over from the easterly wind dominance.


Areas over in the far west could see patchy rainfall tonight and tomorrow with the moisture spreading southeast from WA with Anika weakening inland. The moisture is being drawn into an upper trough with some moderate falls possible with the odd isolated thunderstorm moving through.


Over the course of the next 2-3 days, the weather is expected to dry from the west with the high pressure ridge moving in and bringing not only the cooler southerly winds and drier weather, the high will lead to settled sunny skies. Drier air will see cooler nights developing across the state as well.


But it is that southeast corner of the state, we could see a brief severe weather event with that band of heavy rainfall in the Lower Southeast.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be more concentrated along a front and trough passing through in association with an upper low working northeast from the eastern Bight. This system is running into deep moisture left in the atmosphere from the easterly winds over the past week to two weeks. Widespread rain and thunderstorms should ignite along the boundary over the Lower SE and possible the Upper SE as well. The falls heaviest the further east you go towards the VIC border. There will be a band of lighter rainfall back to the southern Ag areas but no where near the volume of rainfall over in the east. Drier weather will emerge over the state once again from Saturday and through next week. A few thundery showers and patchy rainfall possible over the Northwest Pastoral District tonight and tomorrow.

Southeast SA

The rainfall is expected to ignite during Friday morning and the speed of the trough will dictate the spread and intensity of the rainfall over the Lower and Upper SE districts. At this stage the rainfall ends Friday night.

Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

The severe weather risk returns from Friday through Victoria with a deep upper low moving in from the Bight. It will drift east northeast through the southeast inland of the nation driving showers and thunderstorms. These storms will be able to produce significant amounts of rainfall thanks to the very high PW values across the region. Damaging winds and large hail also possible with favourable wind shear available as well. There may be a renewed burst of heavy rainfall along the coast into next week with the trough tapping into easterly winds.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information for the daily breakdown and looking at the medium term


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more where I will cut down the amount of reading tonight, however the major weather event on the east coast in the short term, Anika passing through northwest WA feeding a trough moving into the southeast which runs into residual moisture over the eastern inland, will lead to another severe weather event for NSW, VIC and QLD this weekend. And the chance of a little quieter weather? What are the chances?

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Another soupy 7 days for the east and north of the nation but the drier air is trying to push the wet air out of the region but it is having a tough time. While there appears to be quieter weather in the medium term, I do not buy it. Not with the positive SAM phase which could eclipse the phase we have just endured. So on that logic, wetter conditions into the medium term for the east and drier weather for the west seems like a logical outcome for the moment. The MJO is the wild card hustler at the moment, will it redevelop and increase moisture over the northern tropics?

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - the GFS has been underplaying the rainfall in recent events so expect some more changes.

More coming up tomorrow from 8am EDT. I want to get this rainfall event in the east and TC Anika through the nation before revisiting the medium and longer term rainfall projections with heaps of contamination in the short term with these events so a better look tomorrow or Friday.





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