REMINDER - SEVERE WEATHER RISKS TODAY FOR THE NATION

Thunderstorms have been raging overnight and this morning through SE QLD and far NE NSW with all modes of severe weather reported. 50-100mm of rainfall has been reported from the Brisbane metro once again with significant flash flooding.


While these won't increase flood peaks, the flash flood risk is dangerous, with the water unable to go anywhere so more inundation from flash flooding in the flood zones of businesses and homes is likely with these storms.


Severe thunderstorms may develop once again this afternoon and there is the risk of giant hail and tornado activity.


Over the northwest of WA, Anika is finally inland and flooding is underway. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over the course of today with damaging winds near the core of circulation, but it is impacting sparsely populated areas of the nation.


FORECAST


Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are straddling the NSW/QLD border and further severe thunderstorms are forecast to form over the remainder of the NE of NSW this afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible. The low pressure system has become slow moving offshore the east coast and is likely to come ashore this afternoon with damaging winds and heavy rainfall for the Central Coast down to about Sydney. A few thundery showers possible over the southeast inland and extending over the GDR but no severe weather expected here.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Heavy rainfall with areas of rain and spiral bands of thundery weather near a low coming in from the northeast towards the Central and Southern coasts of NSW is expected to drive rainfall rates over 50mm/hr in some locations leading to high impact flash flooding. The risk tapers off for the inland

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday into Thursday

Strong clockwise winds near the landfalling low pressure system is likely along the coast, with the strongest winds along and to the south of the low as it moves in. So that looks to be between Sydney and Ulladulla at the moment. But keep up to date with the warnings. Severe thunderstorms over the northern parts of the state could lead to destructive straight line winds.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are ongoing for the southeast of QLD and will likely develop over the Wide Bay and possibly the Capricornia this afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible, but featuring as you can see over the SE as mentioned yesterday. The weather should ease overnight but the risk of storms will be back on Friday.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

High precipitable water values will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding returning with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will likely form over saturated ground leading to significant risk of renewed peaks on some river systems..

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging straight line winds are possible with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening with destructive downbursts possible near supercells.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

A very high chance of large hail given the wind shear aloft supporting rotating updrafts, suspending the large hail for a long duration and these large thunderstorms producing strong downbursts, seeing the stones unable to melt on the journey down. Hail stones could exceed 5cm in some locations.

Tornado Risk Thursday

Severe thunderstorms may turn supercellular during the afternoon on Thursday, particularly on the Great Dividing Range, with a high chance of an isolated tornado or two forming in the region of deeper red.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will be contained back to near and in the path of TC Anika as she weakens over the interior. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main issues with this feature. The storms over the remainder of the tropics, mainly during the afternoon and evening with moderate falls. No severe weather is expected other than with Anika and the remnant circulation.

TC Anika

TC Anika is inland and weakened below cyclone strength but is raining itself out between Bidyadanga and Telfer today.


Flood Risk Anika

Significant rainfall along the path of Anika will see rainfall rates over 30-50mm an hour over flat desert country, leading to flash flooding throughout the region. There may be roads cut and communities cut off for days following the passage of this system.

Flash Flood Risk Anika

High rainfall rates will lead to significant flash flooding through the region, especially along and to the immediate south and east of the system as it crosses through over the coming 24hrs.

Damaging Winds Risk Anika

Damaging winds of up to 120km/h possible with the landfall of Anika, with wind squalls of up to 100km/h possible with the spiral bands of showers and storms wrapping around the system.

Please stay weather aware today!!!

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