After a long build up to this system, the wet weather is finally arriving for parts of WA this morning.
Weather Matters Rainfall forecast for the next 4 days.
Deep tropical moisture is being lifted by a trough over the west coast and an upper low spinning offshore. The two combining over the next 24 hours to bring not only rainfall but a good chance of thunderstorms embedded within that rainfall.
Weather Matters - Thunderstorm Forecast for May 4th 2021.
The thunderstorms will weaken tonight into an area of rain further south with moderate to heavy falls.
There is the chance that some areas could see flash flooding over parts of the inland with heavy rainfall areas, even if thunderstorms are not present.
A month's worth of rainfall is likely for many inland areas, some areas could see as much as three months worth of rainfall with this event, which is welcome for communities that have sown for the season ahead. There will be some drying out for the inland regions beyond this event, so that is some good news.
Euro 18z run - Rainfall for the next 4 days. The bulk you can see falling over the coming 48hrs.
The wet start to May continues with well above average rainfall expected over the coming 5 days for the region, the bulk to fall in the next 48hrs. GFS 18z run 04 May 2021.
Conditions are expected to ease through the middle part of the week ahead of more frontal weather being picked up later in the week with moderate falls contracting back to coastal communities and lighter falls through the inland from time to time, the impact of the moisture from the Indian Ocean is returning to near normal values.
GFS Precipitable Water for the next 2 weeks - shows the moisture contracting north and west away from the inland with coastal areas still receiving bands of showers with cold fronts as they drift on through.
So overall the pattern has turned early this year with widespread early season rainfall - very useful. Some drying out over the coming week or so for inland areas, but still patchy rainfall can be expected. If colder dry air can be propelled north with the long wave trough peaking over eastern Australia then conditions may turn warm and drier mid month.
At this stage conditions should remain cooler than normal for southern areas and warm to hot over northern parts of the state.
Weather Matters - Rainfall forecast next 2 weeks. Valid May 4th 2021.
Weather Matters - Temperature Forecast next 14 days valid May 4th 2021.
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