A significant rain event is coming to an end for eastern NSW as we track a trough towards the coast. Moderate to heavy falls this week has lead to some locations recording nearly twice their monthly average in the first two days of this month. New high pressure with a dry airmass will send the state back into a winter time feel as cold air rotates through southern parts of the state with maybe a few showers on Saturday, otherwise we dry out until next Friday.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid for the next 10 days.

Rainfall easing over the east during the course of Saturday. The high pressure and dry air moving in over Sunday and early next week pushing the moisture out to sea. Next week a cold front and a trough will link up with a deep moisture layer over eastern Australia, keeping falls lighter for now but I do suspect that these will increase and more of western NSW and southern QLD will be included in larger falls.

The week is going to be fairly benign until about Thursday, so let's jump to the next weather event which is now being picked up by all the modelling. The rainfall with this system is too far away to be specific, so I will talk in general terms based off the latest model data below.

Euro 00z run - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution - Next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Significant rain event eases over the east and the cold air bypasses the state to the south so a dry period coming up with local frost and then sunshine under stable air. The next wave begins to approach later Thursday with a strong and warm northerly flow, drawing in moisture from the north and west. Could also be moisture drawn in via onshore winds but not as potent as this past event. A trough deepens and rain breaks out over much of the state, with moderate falls along and west of the Great Dividing Range. The system may linger into next weekend with further rainfall. But specifics on who gets what on a system sitting out 7 day away is impossible, but this is the next chance of rainfall for the region.

Euro 00z run - Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

And you can see that weather clearing early in the period, but it returns after 4 days of dry weather with the moisture being lifted by the trough and slamming it through the southern and eastern inland, with most areas seeing some measurable rainfall. A better handle on this will come from Sunday or Monday with more data on this.

Euro 00z run - Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

This shows you the impacts of the moisture running through the nation and with the fast flow pattern carrying a high risk of widespread rainfall and cloud bands through the sequence. This is where inland areas get their rainfall. It may not be heavy rainfall with each system, but frequent light to moderate rainfall events stack up. So will be watching closely.

So for now NSW is calming down after a busy and wet week with many areas seeing half a months worth of rainfall with scattered pockets already done and dusted with their July rainfall sorted. More is needed for the west and southwest along the Murry and I do think there could be some hope in the signals presented later next week.

I will further updates through the weekend.

89 views0 comments