Rainfall prognostics are largely unchanged for the west coast this evening, with a strong cold front likely to bring a burst of strong winds and heavy rainfall from Sunday. Further fronts are expected to rotate around a strong upper low sitting off the south coast during early next week with moderate rainfall, local hail and thunderstorms.

Then from there a weak ridge comes in mid week, ahead of an even stronger system later next week into the weekend, which would bring the next round potentially severe weather with heavy rainfall and strong winds.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

The pattern is becoming increasingly active for the upcoming 10 days for the west with multiple large scale weather systems rolling through at regular intervals. The first front on Sunday could bring 20-40mm of rainfall with strong winds and potential for some local flash flooding along the coast as that front rolls through. Another set of shortwave fronts are anticipated to keep the showers going about the west and southwest coasts through to mid week. A brief reprieve followed by another strong system with significant rainfall with again the potential for severe weather on that event as well with heavy rainfall and damaging winds returning.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

Waves of low pressure is likely to link up with moisture feeding in from the warm waters of the Indian Ocean which continues to warm as we track through winter. This will see more rainfall events of the scale coming through only increase in frequency so bottom line is get used to it.

Euro 00z - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

The rainfall spread is mixed across models, with some showing heavier falls, some showing lighter falls but I think the truth lay somewhere in the middle and across all the waves of wet weather coming through 50-150mm for the southwest coast and south coast is fair with falls of 20-70mm for the inland areas. I do think we will see more rainfall over the central interior via the jet stream tapping into more moisture and this rolling in ahead of cold fronts sweeping west to east.

So after the nice and sunny weather today and tomorrow, the clouds are coming and the rainfall will be persistent. This will be a prolonged period of inclement weather which is not uncommon but after a wet start to the wet season over this region, there could be some flooding issues develop out of this, if the higher rainfalls are achieved.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

Rainfall rates will be heavy at times and those wet areas of the southwest could see significant falls and with warm SSTs sitting offshore the southwest and west coasts, the rainfall rates could be quite heavy at times.

I will have more information on the weather throughout this region during the weekend.

Happy Friday.

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