A light rain band is moving through SA this evening, as advertised bringing light falls to the inland with that rainfall expected to increase in coverage tonight and through Wednesday.

The better and more moderate rainfall totals as mentioned here for the last week come on the colder shift on the western face of the long wave as it passes through to the east on Thursday and Friday.

More rainfall does look set to develop later in the outlook.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 16 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Tonight's GFS largely unchanged in the rainfall distribution for this week coming, rain already underway over the inland of SA and that should increase on approaches the east. The weather wet on Wednesday through Friday with a broadly unstable west northwest flow, with punchy showers tomorrow afternoon through coastal areas, then Thursday another band of rain should develop with a colder shift to the southwesterly winds. The coldest air looks to bypass the region over VIC, but the showery coverage should be fairly productive up until Saturday afternoon over the southeast third of the state. Next week some more dynamic weather is being touted but as I said this morning, once we get the weather to the east resolved, we should know more by Saturday or Sunday.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 10 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

No real change for this week with widespread rainfall over southern Australia drifting eastwards as a long wave passes off towards the east of the nation. A high comes in after that and now we are seeing better agreement on follow up rainfall to return to southwest of the nation next week with stronger systems approaching the southeast and southern states later in the outlook, good to see that agreement increasing. That does bode well for areas of inland SA as the wave approaches at the end of the run.

00Z GFS Precipitable Water Values Anomalies next 16 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Significant moisture continues to dominate the jet stream and thus we are seeing rainfall frequency increase this week with frontal weather being able to be infused with that deeper moisture layer bringing above average rainfall in a configuration which would deliver passing showers. So wet weather developing behind the rain band tonight. The showers punchy with the chance of some thunder for the coast. A stronger system brings a dry surge from Friday night with colder air surging north. A drier picture for the inland through to next week though PW values are increasing ahead of more rainfall potential this time next week onwards. A third system out west confirms the longer term model spread that was covered in the climate update today.

00Z Euro Precipitable Water Values Anomalies next 10 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

High level PW values continue to dominate the nation with higher chance of the rainfall to be above average over the southeast and east with multiple troughs continuing to roll through. Then next week watch the rainfall event building in the coming days with the chance of follow up falls coming through WA and approaching SA later in the run. It is promising for those hanging out for a wet spell.

00Z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Rain about tonight with light falls mainly, though a few moderate falls cannot be ruled out. Then widespread showers for the region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the showers turning to areas of rain with moderate falls on Thursday and Friday. Some heavy falls possible about the southeast coast of SA and into VIC with this system. There could be some falls over 50mm in the Lofty Ranges, about the southwest of VIC, southeast of SA and through the Great Dividing Range into northeast VIC with up to 100mm possible through the period there. Flood watches have been issued for parts of VIC and NSW. Another major rainfall event lurks in about 7-8 days time and another after that. But once we get through this period of wet and windy weather, we have a better chance of seeing how that weather evolves.

00Z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Very similar to GFS now with widespread rainfall developing overnight and turning to showery period from Wednesday afternoon or evening. Some moderate rainfall coming through on Thursday and Friday with a pair of fronts and cold southwest winds. Then we watch the approach of that high on Saturday clearing skies over SA, the showers taking time to clear over VIC. Next week another rainfall event looms off WA and offers hope of follow up falls in the medium term, that signal we have been watching since Saturday gathering strength.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Rainfall largely unchanged though I have increased falls for the wet areas over the Lofty Ranges and about exposed areas of the southeast coast where the showers will be frequent, heavy and persistent for Wednesday through Saturday. Conditions will dry out for the whole state from northwest to southeast from Saturday. Next week more rainfall is expected but it falls just outside of the period. Another front does lurk in between now and then early in the new week but modelling is quite poor so only factoring in light falls.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Light falls of rain tonight with the odd fall near 10mm possible over parts of the east. More persistent and moderate rainfall develops later tomorrow right through until Saturday morning, some of that moving inland Thursday night and Friday. Then conditions dry over the inland regions Saturday through next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Heavy rainfall stacking up along the divide in VIC with moderate to heavy falls for those areas exposed to a westerly. A flood watch is in force for parts of NSW and VIC. Then a strong cold front brings the heavier rainfall totals back to southern and mountain VIC. Central areas should see the bulk of the heavier falls. Showers ease Sunday and clear by Monday over southern areas at this stage.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 13th of July 2021.

Eastern suburbs look wetter in the latest guidance with falls in the Yarra Ranges and Knox areas quite moderate to heavy. Heavy falls possible through the Princess Hwy east of Naree Warren to about Moe. Falls over the course of the next 10 days should reach 30-40mm in Melbourne.

More weather details coming in the morning and hopefully some rainfall totals to talk about!!

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