RAINFALL SPREAD IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.


A quick look at the broader data sets tonight with the risk of severe weather over in the east growing by the day and I have covered that off this evening in the state based forecast for NSW and QLD so take a look at those posts if you need more information.


Further there is growing indications of a robust rainfall event in the west which will likely bring severe weather threats to the southwest of the country as well.


In the short term we have scattered showers and thunderstorms over the east and southeast with colder air, this current rainfall is generally producing light falls but keeps things ticking over in these areas ahead of more widespread rainfall potential next week and possibly the next week as well.


More coming up in the days ahead.


Euro Rainfall - 51 Members - Next 2 Weeks

Very good agreement in the broader data set from the Euro for widespread above average rainfall with flood potential for the east of QLD extending into northeast NSW. Some of the members go for tremendous rainfall and a few have a lot less but this median rainfall spread should be cause for concern in areas that are recovering from flood issues. You can pick out the upper high as well over the central parts of the nation and while that might keep the rainfall at bay on current guidance for SA, that is not well supported across all data sets. There is the chance of significant rainfall coming in from the west of the nation with moisture streaming out of the Indian Ocean but you can see the bias is in the east.

Euro - Single Data - Next 2 Weeks

You can see the higher rainfall on the single data set over the eastern inland of QLD and along the coast into northern NSW. But the falls taper off the further south you go. Moisture streaming out of WA and the Indian Ocean needs to be watched more carefully as we move through the end of next week.

GFS Rainfall - 35 Members - Next 2 Weeks

Similar to the Euro, though it tucks the rainfall a little further east and northeast through NSW suggesting the westerly wind belt will knock the upper trough and low through to the coast of NSW and QLD quicker. There is more moisture coming through the westerly wind belt from next week but not as amplified as the single run below.

GFS Single Run - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

Noting the tremendous rainfall potential of up to 1000mm over the SE of QLD on this run signifies if all the ingredients come together the potential for high rainfall is there but I am not drawing that solution just yet. The rainfall comes into NSW but not as far south as the CMC (below this) and the Euro (at the top). But good agreement on the rainfall being more pronounced in the east and southwest with the interior down into SA missing out for now but this can still change and will likely change.

CMC - 30 Members - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

Widespread rainfall expected through the northeast and east and through into the southeast with heavy rainfall potential. The rainfall over the southwest is there but not as amplified as other models, but the idea is on the table. This model has more rainfall for southern SA into the southeast of VIC with frontal weather into the following weekend.

It is important to point out that we will see major shifts and twists in the modelling surrounding the QLD rainfall so stay up to date. It could drift into NSW, SA and as far south as VIC but also stay up through QLD without moving south. We need to get the system being analysed in real time first.

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