RAINFALL SPREAD FOR THE COMING RAIN EVENT IN THE EAST.

More coming up after 5pm EST but here is the rainfall spread forecast to emerge throughout the coming days with the chance of widespread falls developing a little further west through QLD and NSW in response to this hard to pin down upper low.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be well above normal over northern and eastern areas of the state with some rainfall totals sitting well above the norm for this time of year. Severe weather relating to flash and riverine flooding is possible through the weekend and next week. Rainfall will be moderate over inland areas of the state from the Riverina through the Central West and into the Northern Inland. Rainfall variable with relation to the slow motion of the clumps of convection. Near dry out in the far west. Rainfall along the coast will continue through Sunday and Monday with a low dictating the spread and location of the heavy falls. The rainfall will clear the interior from Monday and the coastal areas will see the showers becoming less frequent from later in the week as the flow pattern tends back westerly.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Widespread rainfall is expected to continue over the interior from Mount Isa through to the SE QLD Coast with the bulk of the heavy rainfall forecast to be near and north of trough over the interior Friday and along the coast Saturday through Monday but possibly into Tuesday before easing and clearing mid next week. Some areas could see 200-300mm of rainfall from this event but possibly more about the exposed coast between Mackay and Hervey Bay. Up to 100mm for a few centres over the interior as well. Flooding is of concern in these areas, both riverine and flash flooding. The showers decrease mid next week with high pressure coming in.

Rainfall through the interior is of significance for this time of year but more importantly along the coast, rainfall of that nature in the dry season and the cooler season is about a 1/50-year episode, we have to go back to 1973 to see something similar to this occurring. So very anomalous weather, do not expect the modelling to handle it well as the interval of this type of weather occurring is quite rare.

Remain weather aware and stay close to the forecasts as the heavier rainfall will move around from forecast to forecast as is the case with these systems and the mesoscale (smaller scale) features.

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