The models are looking promising for another round of wet and windy weather descending on the southwest and west of the nation. It is expected, after all, it is the peak of the wet season through southern and western WA.
The models are in good agreement now that after a fine few days, we are set to see significant moisture pool in from the Indian Ocean and link up with frontal weather, to bring bands of rainfall at regular intervals from Sunday.
Euro 00z Surface Pressure pattern and rainfall distribution - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.
After a fine few days, Sunday is the day that the weather begins to shift. You will note the Indian Ocean does seem to bring moisture into the southwest and west of the nation now, and that signal is continue to improve so we could see even more rainfall analysed for the region in the coming days with the lead system. The flow pattern that follows contains a few shortwave cold fronts, which will bring bands of rain and strong winds with each passage.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.
A few showers possible about the south coast on Thursday with a front passing to the southeast. Significant rainfall for the west expected to develop on Sunday with a strong front driven by a deep low off to the southwest. A follow up front early next week with further rainfall and strong winds. Another front will approach two days later. Taking the GFS data sets, there are another 2-3 fronts with significant rainfall after this point through to mid month as an active westerly wind belt starts to become established for a good 10 days.
From the raw data..
GFS 00z run - Rainfall for the coming 16 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.
Rainfall looks to develop from Sunday and become persistent for a number of days following, possibly up to a week for the southwest and west coast with some good chance of inland falls developing. This will take the rainfall through to mid month if it verifies
Euro 00z run - Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.
Rainfall heavy at times from Sunday with quite showery conditions to follow after the main front on Sunday with further short waves to come in via an unstable westerly flow pattern.
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