A slow moving trough is currently moving through the eastern inland at a snails pace, producing areas of rain and some thunder, with the rainfall moderate at times today. These falls are significant when we are talking about rain at the driest time of the year for this part of the world.
Rainfall in the 24hrs to 9am this morning - 2nd of July 2021.
A months worth of rainfall for parts of Central QLD is very welcome after a dry year and the ongoing drought.
Rainfall in the 8hrs to 5pm this evening - 2nd of July 2021.
Scattered falls of 20-30mm about the Wide Bay with more rainfall ongoing and moderate falls of up to 20mm through parts of SE QLD and the hinterland also useful for this time of year.
The trough responsible is starting to lift north and east, helped along by a front moving through the southeast and the upper flow pattern starting to increase it's wind profile. This will propel dry air into NSW and QLD during the course of the weekend and by Sunday it will be dry.
Rainfall will be heaviest on Saturday over the Wide Bay through to the Central Coalfields and Highlands with the trough moving into warmer more moist air over the region.
Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.
Note that heavy area of rainfall over the central parts of the state with the trough then clearance for a number of days under high pressure, but there is more rainfall in the offering next week with another trough and potential inland rainfall.
Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.
The latest model set including Euro have got a good handle of clearing out the trough from QLD during Sunday with a drier and colder airmass moving through the region. Frosts will return to the inland, some severe but settled dry sunny days. Showers may return to coastal areas during mid week with onshore winds with high pressure moving to the southeast of our region. Then later in the week moisture will increase over the central and eastern interior, via upper level northerly winds. This may be lifted by a trough with rain breaking out over the western and central inland of QLD before sweeping into the east once again. So something to watch with that feature.
Euro Simulated Water Vapour Satellite for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.
The simulated water vapour satellite does indicate the coverage of moisture increasing later next week and systems will be in play to lift it. But it is a matter of where the moisture feeds into, and whether strong systems can lift the moisture over our region or whether the systems phase to the south and keep us cold, cloudy and mostly dry with rainfall over NSW. We have to wait til Sunday to find out more.
Overall the rainfall looks reasonable in the coming 2 days on top of what has already fallen which is welcome for many. But we need follow up and there are signals for that. I have not drawn it into the charts tonight as I am taking a conservative approach to this - but things could change as we edge closer. The amount of weather that is ongoing over WA next week is likely to spill over through the inland and reach us at some point through QLD and northern NSW.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.
Most of this rainfall I have drawn in is for the coming 2 days and then mostly dry but totals out west may increase if the agreement in modelling improves over the coming 2 days.
More updates to come during the weekend and I will have another post about the weather ongoing through QLD on Saturday.
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