RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

A cold pool of air/upper low is expected to move out of the southern ocean during the weekend and arrive in SE SA or western Victoria during Sunday night bringing with it, the chance of showers and thunderstorms to this region.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Southeast Australia



Forecast confidence remains low as there is little consistency from model run to model run and hence why you are seeing great variability in rainfall across your region. That will continue til about Sunday.



This is the GFS MSLP look at the upper low, but this will change once again.


The colder air and instability is then expected to move north or northeast into western NSW during early next week, running into modest moisture left over by the onshore wind regime that is currently in progress.


CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days shows widespread falls for SE SA and western VIC. It is an outlier.

Euro model suggesting a low to bring widespread rainfall to southeast NSW and eastern VIC but also has excellent rainfall with the low riding up from the south through western VIC.

The ensemble run from Euro is a better way to look at it, showing an average of 50 members, wet bias over the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC not as strong with better rainfall chances over southern SA. So this forecast remains at low confidence.

Back to the GFS and this shows a stormy outbreak over inland NSW and eastern VIC with heavy showers for SA as the upper low rides over SE SA. Heavy rainfall for SE NSW likely in this scenario which is similar to Euro with a low off the NSW Central coast.


That will allow showers to increase over the eastern parts of VIC, NSW and possibly southern QLD too, with thunderstorms also possible.


A low pressure system is expected to surface as the upper low deepens during next week with that surface centre the focus for possibly severe weather along parts of the NSW or Gippsland coasts.


Main threats at this stage with an east coast low would be heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large seas.


Storms that do develop along the centre of the upper low have the potential to produce large amounts of small hail during early next week through western NSW and eastern SA. Something to watch in modelling over the coming days.


However it is a very low confidence forecast with little consistency from run to run.


Southern Australia Rainfall - next 10 days


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