A blustery warm day is unfolding over the southern states, with thick high and middle level cloud fanning out ahead of a cold front that is bringing bitterly cold showery weather to southern WA today.

That front will begin to weaken on the approach, but there is sufficient moisture in place to still bring a band of rainfall through the southern third of SA and statewide to VIC an TAS during Tuesday.

The northern most aspect of the rainband will filter through southern inland NSW with only high cloud for remaining central and northern parts of NSW.

Rainfall totals.

SA - 2-15mm for most through southern coastal areas, the further south you go the wetter you will be. Falls towards 25mm for the Adelaide Hills and the far southeast districts bordering VIC. Adelaide should see 10-20mm.

VIC - 5-20mm for most areas with falls of 25-40mm along the northern slopes of the Great Dividing Range and Alpine Areas. Melbourne itself likely to be in a rain shadow and some suburbs could walk away with as little as 5mm.

NSW - No rain expected for the northern third of the state. Rainfall totals of 1-8mm for southern inland areas with falls of up to 15mm for the Southeast areas exposed to a westerly wind. Canberra should see 5mm of rainfall but Wagga could see 8mm and Albury 10mm.

Rainfall forecast - Next 4 days. Valid Monday May 24th 2021.

The cold front and moisture is up against a big battle with a large high that has taken about 2 weeks to move from west to east over the southern parts of the nation, still holding up the weather systems over WA. The front is strong enough to nudge the high eastwards, but by doing so, will lose it's potency and the atmospheric dynamics for widespread rainfall will not be in place.

Cold front moving east but weakening as it hits that high in the Tasman.

There are better signals for rainfall that exist beyond this period through WA and then SA from this coming weekend and into early next week, as we end May and start June, the rainfall could come back in a little more widespread fashion, and even be considered follow up to the falls that do occur over the coming days to parts of SA, VIC, TAS and southern NSW.

The moisture plume is quite widespread on the front and low and this will send up a lot of cloud through the nation, but how much rainfall will be determined by whether the system moves east or south. More on that in the national weather picture AM and PM editions for now.

Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 weeks. Valid Monday May 24th 2021.

It will be much colder after today with the remains of that cold pool over WA sweeping eastwards during the week. A secondary pulse of cold air this weekend, over eastern VIC and NSW will be dry, but very chilly, so severe frosts could once again return to these regions with that dry airmass being flung north on the western periphery of high pressure ridging in from SA. That will lead to a doozy of a system over NZ this weekend.

Weekend Temperature anomalies - showing a cold bias over eastern Australia, leading to frosty starts, but nice sunny days given the dry airmass.

There could be some showery weather this weekend along the extreme coastal fringe with that cold air riding north, but with the wind bearings out of the SSW, this will keep most of the showers parallel to the coastline. The Hunter may see the most of the rainfall in this sequence if it verifies. And those falls would be light and under 30mm. Not much of it will extend inland.

Rainfall data prognostics - next 10 days. Valid Monday May 24th 2021. Showing that coastal rainfall, with little moving inland, due to the showers moving NNE along the coast.

Need more weather information for the coming week for your region? Planting? Sowing? Grazing? Partying? I can help you with any request. Let me know - karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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