A quick update ahead of the rainfall coming through the southeast and east during the coming days.
As mentioned we now can see the consistency in the modelling because the system is being tracked in real time and the upper air data is being fed back into the data sets.
Rainfall for the coming 5 days
Widespread showers turns to areas of rainfall through VIC and NSW with heavy falls about the southeast of NSW and northeast of VIC over the Alpine areas. Flooding is possible. A band of rainfall can seen extending back through northwest of NSW extending back through western QLD into the NT. That boundary could see inland areas of the nation record their heaviest rainfall since early this year.
Shows the rainfall spreading eastwards with the cold front with moderate to heavy falls expected along the axis of the front over the southeast states, with moderate falls as the remnant boundary moves north. The band of rainfall extends back northwest through NSW into southwest QLD and southern NT with moderate to locally heavy falls.
Another shift to the east with the rainfall overnight in the modelling - heavy falls over Alpine areas of Northeast VIC and into Southeast NSW could exceed 150mm in some locations so something to watch with a flood risk there, and if that falls, there will be downstream minor flooding for southern NSW and northern VIC. Otherwise the higher resolution model shows the potential for thunderstorms in the rain band pushing through extreme east SA but increasing over the NSW state line eastwards. That is where moisture is expected to be lifted and then rainfall increase.
Very similar to the ACCESS model where we have significant rainfall over the NSW/SA/VIC borders and moving eastwards from Friday with heavy falls through VIC and NSW, mainly over the ranges and in the Northeast of VIC and Southeast of NSW. Some areas will see 100-150mm over Alpine areas with the rain running over topography leading to heavy falls. The rainfall extends back over western NSW and through western QLD into the southern NT.
This has a more linear northwest flow aloft and pushes the front through quicker, meaning the moisture is kept on the NSW side of the border, with the most widespread falls through central and eastern VIC, much of NSW and into southern QLD back through the southern NT. This model says no to the heavy falls over the Alpine regions but I think that is incorrect and shows that it cannot pick up on the topographic impacts.
Euro - Zoomed
Can see the heavier rainfall is over the southeast NSW and eastern VIC - the models are shifting the front through a little quicker today, that is meaning that rainfall could be maximised now east of a line from Melbourne through Shepparton. The rain band will extend back through western NSW along a trough and into southern NT and moderate rainfall passing over southern QLD and northeast NSW west of the divide.
Again the modelling in better agreement shifting the front through a little quicker with the moisture lifted to it's full potential in a line from Tibooburra down to Melbourne eastwards. Heaviest rainfall over Alpine areas could reach 100mm. But this equates in some areas to a month's worth of rainfall.
TAKE AWAY POINTS
LIGHT RAINFALL FOR SA IS MOST LIKELY NOW WITH MODERATE TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE NSW BORDER WITH THUNDERSTORMS
RAIN IS WIDESPREAD OVER VICTORIA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIEST FALLS FROM MELBOURNE TO SHEPPARTON EASTWARS.
RAINFALL WIDESPREAD THROUGH MOST OF NSW WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOME AREAS OUT WEST LIKELY TO SEE CLOSE TO A MONTH'S WORTH OF RAINFALL
I will have my video update coming up in the next hour.