A drier day today with a nice supply of sunshine though things are set to become quite cold tonight and I will have an update on that shortly so stay tuned to that.

The cloud is pushing east through SA with a band of rainfall bringing moderate falls to the Eucla and across the Nullabor this morning and extending eastwards this afternoon. That area of rainfall near a low is expected to move east through SA on Thursday before reaching western NSW by lunchtime and then eastwards into the remainder of the state during Thursday afternoon through Friday lunch as the system opens up into a trough and weakens away.

Some of the rainfall that comes through NSW, depends on it's forward speed, could fall as patchy light snowfalls above 1000m.

Lets have a look at the expected rainfall on the data sets from late this morning.

Euro 18z - Rainfall for the coming 2 days.

Rainfall spreads from west through to the east with moderate falls over the southwest of the state possible but the rainfall is less aggressive than the GFS but still light areas of rainfall, widespread with the low at least with 2-10mm fair for many locations. Some of that rainfall may also creep into northwest VIC as well. The falls will be heaviest again as the system rolls over the GDR.

GFS 18z - Rainfall for the coming 2 days.

Rainfall has been consistently higher with the GFS for this event, with 10-20mm possible for southwest NSW and that also be reflected through the southern and central GDR and 5mm for many areas on the plains. Then more rainfall for these areas comes through over the weekend, the GFS more generous than the Euro.

Rainfall for the coming 2 days.

Rainfall will be generally light and patchy and so the rainfall will be light over a number of hours but scrape together 5-15mm for many locations. This rainfall will chop and change over the coming 12 hours as we track the low in real time. The Lower Western could do well out of this south of Broken Hill and north of Mildura. This area of rainfall is conditional on the low behaving in the way it is being modelled at this time. I think the Euro is running a little too dry for the system looking at the system in real time today.

Timing of Rainfall

The rainfall should spread out and become lighter as it moves from western NSW through the central areas and then into the eastern areas along the GDR. This will see the rainfall patchy and more nuisance values over the course of a long duration, so you may end up with 5mm from 12hrs of spitty rainfall and a lot of cloud cover. The rainfall lingers over the western plains and along the GDR through to Friday night.

Another update on the week of weather ahead coming up during this afternoon.

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