RAINFALL AND WINTRY WEATHER TO RETURN TO SA AND VIC FROM SUNDAY.

Better agreement on frontal weather rotating through the southwest will make it through to the southeastern states from later Sunday, with the dairy country of southeast SA and VIC to pick up the better of the falls. The rainfall moderate at times with a front passing through.


That front does two things, it finally brings the rainfall through these areas which should be a lot wetter during this time of year in a westerly wind profile, but it also pushes that persistent weak ridge out to the east, opening the door for the westerly wind belt to impact large parts of the southeast.


There is better signals for that to occur.


12z Euro Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Note the frontal weather finally makes its way through during Sunday bringing the showers back with a colder westerly wind change, then the fronts line up SA and VIC, though rainfall doesn't look as heavy with each front, like WA, this will change as that long wave trough moves closer to the southern coastline of the nation and the fronts peak over SA and VIC rather than out west. That will be occurring from this time next week at the earliest.

12z GFS Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 16 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

GFS is wetter out of the two major models this morning, and has been consistent in bringing better rainfall through on Sunday to the southeast of SA and VIC and then much more rainfall with the stronger front on Tuesday which then continues the wet signal from that point on. This model has picked the wintry spell for the southern parts of the nation the best out of all models and I am siding with this solution for the southern half of Australia.

12z GFS Upper flow Pattern for the next 16 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

The long wave does come across next week and sets the stage for a wintry burst of weather with the coldest weather of the winter thus far. Rainfall likely to become more frequent and moderate at times with small hail and thunder also getting involved. So the weather you are seeing over WA today and this week, will come through next week for SA and VIC with rainfall totals beginning to accumulate after a dry and settled week.

12z GFS Precipitable Water for the next 16 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

This chart paints the most hope for rainfall in the medium term following quite a decent amount of shower activity, with a system like this to bring the chances of soil moisture improving for large parts of central and southern Australia with high levels of precipitable water coming down through the jet stream. The system with the high precipitable water values sits out in the medium term and will constantly chop and change, but it is a signal that has been there for a number of days now.

12z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

A much better outcome for the state with GFS and I do believe this is the right solution for next week with rainfall increasing for the southern coastal areas and potential inland rain developing with moisture pooling off the west coast of WA.

12z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Note the shower coverage increases from Sunday with the westerly belt returning for a good part of next week, some heavier fronts are possible from day 6-10.

Euro 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - a broader view shows not much on this model, but I am siding with GFS which has got a more aggressive set of waves coming through next week which I think is the right solution.

12z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

The rainfall like GFS, increases from Sunday with heavier frontal weather expected from days 6-10.

So putting that all together, after this dry 5 day period to come, the rainfall will return during Sunday with a gusty westerly change and then frequent fronts next week which we will get a better handle on each of those probably from later this week if not the weekend, so sit tight and just keep looking at these forecasts more than the modelling which will continually cause you to lose hair!


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Showers increasing from Sunday for the southern coasts of SA and into the southeast of SA and southwest VIC, these areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. The rainfall comes through with more force Sunday and again Tuesday at this stage, this bringing a burst of rainfall through inland areas, and I think the Tuesday feature offers the best rainfall at this stage. There is further rainfall after this with some modelling suggesting heavy falls and some lighter falls, but I am sitting conservative for the next 10 days, but I expect numbers to increase for SA, VIC and TAS.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

The numbers will continue to rise through this region as we get more frontal weather into the forecast period next week but each system we will have to assess because they could interact individually with moisture. So this is where rainfall will increase during the coming days.

I will update this again this afternoon.



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