Rainfall is easing at the moment through much of SA with the airflow drying out and stabalising thanks to a ridge moving in from the west. Rainfall won't totally clear the southern coastline as the flow tends more westerly and then another front will move into that flow during Monday.
The front and upper trough will then move during the early part of this week and push east. A weakening low pressure system is anticipated to develop from the west during Wednesday and bring more falls to the region with the bulk of the rain falling over the Yorke Peninsula and heading across to western NSW.
A stronger system is expected to move through the region during later this week with more widespread rainfall and gusty winds. This system could bring severe weather to the region with more moderate falls possible.
GFS 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 16 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021
GFS continues the fast flow westerly pattern with further rain and strong winds coming up this week. The wind flow eases and stabalises in the next week but it will turn unstable northwesterly once again during Monday ahead of an upper trough Tuesday bringing more rainfall for southern coastal areas but will likely favour areas further east of SA. Then a weakening low looks set to bring another burst of rain and cloud weather potentially for the YP and areas over the inland before heading into western NSW.. That could be quite a nice bonus drop for the region. A much stronger system approaches this time next week with the potential for severe weather for southern coastal areas Only light falls for this time for the central areas at this time.
GFS 00z -Rainfall for 10 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021
The rainfall contracts to coastal areas again for much of this week with moderate accumulation likely. Some light falls are possible through inland areas at times, especially with a weakening low over the YP on Wednesday and that will spread further east during Thursday ahead of a stronger system during the latter parts of this week. That could bring back moderate rainfall activity for the region. Then we are looking a westerly flow building after this period to keep the showers going over inland areas with light to moderate falls to continue.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall stays coastal for much of the outlook though rainfall may spread inland with that low coming through WA and into SA during mid week, bringing 5-10mm through a wide area, that is a good chance. Then follow up rainfall for much of the southern third of the state. The rainfall wont make it much past Lake Eyre at this time. Though moisture values stay elevated through the period.
More weather details to come on Sunday, and we will likely have a better handle on the conditions over the course of the week tomorrow night.