SA - RAIN SPREADING EAST

A low pressure system is currently moving through the state and that is dominating the update this morning. Lets get straight to it.


Satellite Imagery

A significant cloud band has rolled through western SA this morning with areas of rainfall moving over Central areas, now crossing into eastern areas with moderate rainfall about. The cloud will clear west to east this afternoon with the bulk of this system out of the region by tomorrow morning. Note the fast flow pattern sitting to the south of the low pressure are with fronts now moving northeast towards the Bight. That will bring more widespread active weather during the weekend.

Radar

Good to see the follow up falls we were following last week with that rainfall now passing through the region, and starting to see some moderate falls of 10-20mm being observed in scattered pockets. Generally most areas have recorded 5mm.

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The modelling is largely unchanged for the region with the low passing through to the east over the coming 24 hours followed by a fast flow pattern this weekend with severe weather potential for damaging winds and a cold and gusty airmass causing severe weather conditions for farmers and graziers. The further inland you are the better the weather will be, but still cold. Then next week, the hope of the drier days are fading with fronts passing through downstream from the northwest to the southeast, so patchy rainfall in a milder northwest flow looks fair. A stronger system looks to build this time next week with more areas of rain and strong and gusty winds.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall spread is fairly unchanged and has verified well with the low coming through this morning. Then we see the frontal weather impacting the coastal areas and some coming through to inland areas at times. The rainfall will be more widespread over the southeast areas with moderate to heavy falls this weekend with some of the showery periods. Then more showery weather next week as fronts slide over the region from northwest through to the southeast. Then more signals for rainfall to develop this time next week from the west.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Euro is largely unchanged and has not performed as well as GFS with this low pressure system coming through today. There are now increasing signals for moderate falls coming for the Mid North Coast and Flinders today. Snowfalls have been observed as well which wasn't picked up by the Euro. In any case the system clears through and we see the frontal weather building for the weekend and this is again starting to align more with GFS with a more northward push of the frontal weather passing over the state. Next week the Euro has more grunt in the frontal weather later in the period, with a cloud band developing along the front, some of that rainfall activity returning to western SA later next week.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Significant rainfall spread today with the low will be the most widespread rainfall event for the coming week. The wet weather spread is then contracting back to coastal areas in line with the westerly wind belt with squally winds and frontal weather passing through from Saturday into next week. The flow tends more northwesterly so the showers and patchy rainfall may contract back into the southeast of the state before that next wave of stronger fronts passes through during later next week or weekend

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is largely unchanged from overnight with some of this coming down right now, especially over the Mid North and Flinders, but the coastal areas to the southeast likely to see the rainfall increasing from Saturday morning and then pretty much off and on all week. Rainfall for the Mallee and Lower Western will be most widespread today and tomorrow morning before light rainfall comes in with frontal weather over the weekend.

More weather to come today with another update on the rainfall spread and a 2 week forecast later today.


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