Rainfall frequency is starting to increase and finding dry spells will become harder to collect over the coming months, a sign of what is to come.

Overnight, widespread falls through southern QLD and northern NSW delivered another months worth of rainfall to parts of the region, generally moderate falls of 15-30mm for many locations and rainfall continuing to fall.

Satellite Imagery - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rain extensive over southeast QLD and northeastern inland NSW with that focus shifting east through today. The chance of thunderstorms remain up there. Thunderstorms have been active in the middle levels over parts of southern and central NSW this morning with the odd fall over 10mm. Small hail has also been observed.

A low is expected to form on the deepening trough with that low rapidly deepening offshore the Central Coast tonight with coastal falls in excess of 50mm possible.

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure pattern and rainfall - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

The low rapidly deepens as it moves east, taking the rain and storms with it, by this evening, the inland is dry, the coast is wet and windy, with potential for damaging winds about the coastal fringe.

Rainfall will continue this morning and early afternoon through the inland but the falls will contract to the coast tonight with moderate to heavy falls about the Central and Hunter coasts.

Rainfall for the coming 2 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rainfall for the coming 2 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Thunderstorms in this region of 8-15mm makes the rainfall very tricky to draw today, so your number will vary in this zone. Anyone could see 0-20mm. That type of weather I am afraid. But some have already seen double figure rainfall totals this morning with thunderstorms. This will contract southeast and east later today.

Moving further ahead, more general rainfall will redevelop for the western inland and through the southeast states, with those fast moving fronts expected from about Tuesday. There are signals increasing for moisture to stream into this lead system, bringing a more widespread band of rainfall. Also in about a weeks time, the trend is to move that long wave trough over WA through SA and into the VIC with colder weather and wintry temperatures descending with further rainfall.

Euro 12z - Surface Pattern and Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday July 9th 2021.

Plenty of frontal weather to keep the rainfall chances elevated through the coming 10 days with a colder shift next week from Friday.

GFS 12z - Surface Pattern and Rainfall next 16 days - Valid Friday July 9th 2021.

Taking it out to the medium term you can see the frontal weather continues through to the 4th week of July with more rainfall expected for most of the southern coastal areas and adjacent inland. Moisture is building over the Indian Ocean and likely to come southeast from about the 20th onwards.

GFS 12z - Rainfall next 16 days - Valid Friday July 9th 2021.

The rainfall spread is encouraging for many through inland parts of the nation, but for parts of northern and central inland NSW, the ground is saturated and no more is needed so for the next two weeks it is mixed blessings in terms of rainfall. This wet signal is only going to increase for the coming months ahead.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rainfall over the east over the next 2 days, then it transitions to the westerly wind belt which will be the focus once the low moves off during Saturday.

So plenty of wet weather ongoing and more to come with the next batch of cold fronts moving through the southeast and eastern inland next week, and that will lead the focus from the afternoon forecast updates and again through the weekend, Sunday will likely have a better handle on the rainfall distribution.

26 views0 comments