A strong upper trough and a surface trough through the west of the state continuing to bring the chance of showers today for inland areas west of the divide. Some of the showers have been more extensive in coverage than models have suggested.
The satellite paints a fantastic picture of the science I have been banging on about for a few days now.
Satellite Imagery - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.
Significant moisture can be seen streaming into the trough laying over western NSW and QLD triggering showers through the radar hole area. There has been light falls observed. Thunderstorms are also possible along this band but I do think that becomes more likely overnight. The band of cloud will likely stay out west tonight and continue to move slowly east tomorrow. Note the front off the southeast coast is likely to collapse and fall to the southeast helping to lift up the strong cold front that will deliver a cold blast this weekend.
Rainfall under the band has been light and isolated with 1-2mm through the northern slopes of VIC, 1-3mm across some parts of western NSW. Slightly better falls in southwest QLD with 4mm at Thargomindah and 12mm at Congi to the west of Quilpie.
Heavy rainfall along the east coast has eased after 100mm south of Cairns and 50-70mm near Noosa.
But all that moisture in the northeast to easterly flow is streaming west and it is good to see it verify.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.
The rainfall for the coming days is looking good for the central and northern inland areas of NSW. The southern inland and southeast sit in a very tricky spot, where the system diverge around the region and phase in a way that keeps the rainfall chances low for areas around the Southern Tablelands, Southern Highlands and ACT extending down through to the Monaro and South Coast. I think that is a good forecast based on current data.
However for areas between Canberra and northwest out to about Young, the wild card will be decaying convection on the southern end of the trough as it moves through to our north, that may bring some light to moderate rainfall late tomorrow as the storms weaken and are sheared southeast, so that is certainly a low chance but better than nothing.
Rainfall chances increase from about Sydney through Orange and out to Cobar and north and east of there, seems to improve with this east coast rainfall event. 10-30mm in this zone is fair but some could see much more of that over the northeast.
Rainfall may return next week with another front and moisture in feed with light to moderate falls. Most models have had that during the last 24 hours at one point or another.
Surface Pressure Pattern for next week - showing two fronts with rainfall potential over southeastern inland areas including parts of NSW and VIC as well as SA that miss out from the bulk of the rainfall event over the north and east this week and into the weekend.
So despite there not being a great deal for some over the coming few days with the heaviest rainfall going to the northeast, there are more opportunities next week.
Rainfall brings mixed blessing with some wanting lots and others not wanting a bar of it. So hopefully it works out for you all.
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