Rain from overnight has started to move further east this morning but some gusty showers continue about the coastal areas with the low pushing off to the east. The inland should return to dry conditions by this afternoon with the Gascoyne through the interior also expecting to turn dry by later this morning.
A few cold fronts are expected to sweep through, Thursday looks now to be the best day of the sequence with low chance of shower activity about but then frontal weather approaches for Thursday night into Friday morning with a follow up front coming through on Saturday and then another set of fronts early next week.
The frontal weather may persist for all of next week setting up another period of wet and windy weather as a long wave trough sets up over the region with moderate to heavy falls and gusty winds.
There may be an inland rainfall threat thanks to the moisture building once again through the Indian Ocean, stretching southeast through to inland WA. But can that activate into areas of rainfall?
That remains to be seen.
Lets look at modelling.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Rain has nearly concluded for the west coast this morning with a few residual showers. The rainfall expected to become patchier and isolated through Thursday with a weak ridge ahead of frontal weather now anticipated to move through overnight into Friday and more fronts over the weekend and next week. Evidence building for moisture over the inland next week to break out into areas of rainfall mid to late next week, the GFS cannot see it but most other models do. So more rainfall for inland areas should be on the way in about a week.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Note the moisture sitting offshore once again over the weekend and next week, cannot quite get into phase with the frontal weather this weekend, so rainfall chiefly coastal for the weekend and early next week. Then the frontal weather may begin to lift further north with areas of rain developing as the moisture is pulled southeast from the Indian Ocean and being lifted into another cloud band, which we have seen many times this year.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The surface pressure pattern is largely unchanged for WA this morning with low moving east and clearing the rainfall from west to east, so it may be mostly dry for the west of the state today. The rainfall chances remain low along the west coast today and tomorrow with a weak northwest flow. Then a front approaching overnight Thursday into Friday brings the next batch of rain with the coastal areas from Lancelin through to Esperance expected to pick up the best of it and inland to the Scarp. Then stronger fronts next week will see the rainfall become more widespread with a moisture in feed much more pronounced showing rainfall breaking out ahead of those fronts mid to late next week.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall eases this morning from west to east as the low moves into SA. Then we will have a settled 36hrs before the next lot of frontal weather moves in bringing showery periods back to the west coast with cold gusty westerly winds. The showers continue through the weekend and next week, before the coverage of rainfall increases further as moisture is drawn into the long wave coming through with a large cloud band developing in response and areas of rainfall for inland parts of WA quite possible mid to late next week.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall easing from west to east today, with a small break before showers increase from Thursday night and extend throughout the west coast and south coast during Friday with widespread falls expected throughout the weekend. Next week I have painted in the rainfall spread mid to late next week with the falls starting to increase in the modelling and we can be far more specific in who gets what by the weekend when we have a better look at the moisture off the coast.
I will have more updates on the fronts coming up during this afternoon and a detailed look at the Indian Ocean influence over the coming 6 months.