A cloud mass with areas of rainfall through much of eastern WA is beginning to move into SA today with light rainfall beginning to move east, moderate rainfall developing from later today along the Nullabor and Northwest Pastoral District.

The cloud thickens through central areas of the state with areas of rain developing overnight into Thursday with light to moderate rainfall expected for the EP, YP and the eastern inland bordering NSW and VIC.

The low and areas of rain then clear from west to east by the afternoon into the evening with a front to follow up on Friday. That front looks to deliver windy showery weather with a cold airmass in toe. The windy weather with high wind chill will bring about severe conditions for stock exposed to these conditions.

The weather eases during Sunday as a high ridges in with drier weather developing for much of the state away from the southeast districts.

More frontal weather is expected to bring more windy and showery weather mid to late next week with the next long wave trough. I would like to see a break in the westerly to help bring in more moisture but that may not occur at this time. But we wait and see.

The westerly pattern looks to dominate for at least the next 10 days.

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

A low pressure system is expected to move from WA and broaden and weaken a little as it moves into the Bight and western SA. That low will spread widespread rainfall through the southern half of the state tomorrow through Friday morning. Then we have a few fronts that will bring gusty winds and showery weather to coastal areas during the weekend. Now there has been a shift to more of a west to northwest flow which could keep the rainfall coastal and heavier falls now south and east of Adelaide. But will monitor that trend. Still looks cold and blustery. Next week we see a high over the east keeping SA in a warm northwest flow with frontal weather building to the west. That frontal weather is being poorly handled by modelling with the Euro wanting to bring in widespread moisture and rain over the inland while the GFS below just has a savage westerly flow roaring across the Bight and bringing fronts through to the end of the month and into August.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall tomorrow will be the most widespread over the coming 10 days. The rain light to moderate, with OK falls for the EP, YP and through the Adelaide region and into the eastern inland towards the VIC and NSW border. Then we have a showery outlook for the weekend, especially for coastal areas but inland areas north of Whyalla to Port Pirie through to Broken Hill should actually get away with a mostly fine and cold windy weekend, but that is based off the latest data WHICH COULD CHANGE. The northwest flow becomes more stable next week which could bring mostly fine weather for all areas, just the chance of a shower or two in the dairy country in the southeast. Then the next wave of fronts sits off to the west with the chance of moderate rainfall returning later next week.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro is showing reasonable rainfall spreading through the southern parts of the state with a low wafting through, it will weaken and open up into a trough the further east it goes, but the moisture is OK and so rainfall should be light to moderate at best and could total 5-20mm for many locations. Then more showery weather developing for southern YP, EP into Adelaide and points to the southeast with a strong squally cold westerly wind. That will cause significant risk to stock about the south and southeast. Then a drier start to next week in a stable northwest flow, still a shower risk for the southeast before we watch that moisture, that is the next feature that I will be covering for medium term forecasting later today as it holds some interest for widespread falls for inland areas of WA and SA.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The rainfall at this stage largely unchanged from overnight model data and you can see that reflected below. The low will move east Friday, but then frontal weather moves in keeping the wintry weather going this weekend. The flow is a little more northwesterly today in the guidance, the ridge a little firmer over the interior, so if that is the case, the falls may not be as heavy as suggested last night, but it may change still so I will have more on that during the day with further updates. Next week keeping an eye on that moisture and rainfall breaking out over WA.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Rainfall largely unchanged for the next 2-3 days but the totals will start to drop away following the low and if the flow stays more northwest than west this weekend, with the rainfall being biased to southeast areas of the state with lighter falls for southern parts of the EP, YP and the eastern inland areas at best. Then next week, the rainfall developing in WA could hold some potential for inland rainfall returning with moderate falls later next week into the weekend.

Frost Forecast Thursday morning.

I may start to clear the frost risk further east today, as the cloud and moisture is racing in a little quicker than guidance yesterday which could mean a light frost now for the east and the severe frost contracting further east through NSW and VIC.

I will have a look at the low coming through from the west later this morning with a closer look at who will get what and then an update about the Indian Ocean with all the data in for the coming 4 weeks and 6 month outlook.

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