Still no greater clarity on which of the elements will win out in the coming week or so, with rainfall expected to develop over the east coast and southwest of the nation from mid week.

I am still anticipating widespread showers with local thunder for the northern coast of NSW and right along the QLD coast. Can a trough develop along the coastline and deepen later this week? That remains to be seen but still a solution that is on the table.

Modelling has suggested it is unlikely in this evening's data sets, but we have seen different solutions every time the models update, with no great clear consistency on the board.

However I will say it is encouraging to see models starting to ping rainfall for parts of southern Australia, a sign perhaps that the easterly winds may not be as strong in the coming period.

Canadian wants to move an upper low through southern Australia, cut off from the westerly winds and link up with residual moisture to produce showers and storms through early May. A little faster than other models predicting this pattern flip.

With the pattern not as stubborn in the east, it does open the door for a more dynamic system to then emerge out of the southern ocean and cross into southeast Australia, including dry parts of SA, VIC and western NSW into early May.

BUT that is only if the blocking situation on the east coast resolves.

If the blocking pattern holds then a scenario like below could indeed eventuate where rainfall becomes limited and non existent for southern Australia with fronts being driven southwards.

This was GFS overnight into Monday morning.

For now I have taken down the rainfall numbers for the east based of guidance tonight and brought numbers up over the southeast in line with that likely pattern shift towards the end of the 10 day forecast.

This rainfall forecast encompasses the prospect of that pattern shift between May 4-10 through southern Australia, with the potential of this rainfall becoming heavier, especially if the east to northeast flow ahead of the fronts, is drawn further west through the inland, then picked up by a slow moving trough to produce a solid area of slow moving rainfall. It is one solution of many but seasonally, that is how autumn rainfall can eventuate through these regions.

More updates to come on this weather situation and I can assure you, it will change again!

Stay up to date.


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