A significant cloud band has been travelling across the nation, no doubt bringing colder conditions through larger parts of the east, including many in QLD. This has started to drop as rain now over southwest QLD and parts of southern QLD too.

Satellite shows the rain band starting to thicken up over the tirstate region with thunderstorms embedded in this band over southwest QLD. These will become more scattered overnight and spread into the southeast, towards northwest NSW and southern QLD.

Thunderstorms are also underway and expected to increase over southwest QLD tonight.

They will be elevated and gusty, with moderate rainfall. They will be also moving at pace so they will not be sitting over one location for a long duration.

Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday - Valid 23rd of June 2021.

Damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms overnight but they will be isolated, but if your station gets a thunderstorm, it will pack a punch.

Damaging Winds Forecast Wednesday - Valid 23rd of June 2021.

Thursday, the trough is draped from northwest to the southeast with thunderstorms expected to fire along the southern branch of the trough with strong storms possible during the afternoon and evening, especially closer to the NSW border.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021.

Storms once again may be gusty with damaging wind gusts possible.

Damaging Winds Forecast - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021.

Rainfall wise, the totals look reasonable over the coming 4 days, with the rain steady at times along the NSW border, especially through the Darling Downs from Roma back through Charleville towards Birdsville. Some places may see a months worth of rainfall.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021.

During Friday the trough weakens as an upper high builds over the south, leading to upper instability weakening, but the trough may still trigger thick cloud and patchy light rainfall about the Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coastal areas. Light falls at this time.

The moisture plume over northern Australia begins to move on to the northwest and heights coming up and stable airmass returning means the cloud will decrease and the rainfall opportunity cease for inland areas.

Precipitable water values for the coming 10 days, showing that trough hanging on over southeast and eastern areas during the weekend, with modest moisture, the rainfall may persist, light to moderate falls at best. Then the high pressure comes in and returns the onshore wind regime to QLD. This may spawn more showers.

All eyes will be on a potential cloud band developing this time next week, the next opportunity for more widespread rainfall spreading across the nation.

Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Next 10 days - Euro 12z run.

Significant moisture is floating around through later this month into July, eventually some of this will land in QLD and combine with lower pressure to bring rainfall. It is not a matter of IF, its now WHEN.

KMA Rainfall next 12 days - Showing what happens when it all comes together. At this stage I am not forecasting this over the coming period, but it is a great example when the moisture is in phase with a trough and low over the QLD/NSW region, rather than being further south. This will be more of a feature during August and likely in the spring.

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