QUIETER WEATHER FOR QLD - THOUGH RAIN MAY BREAK OUT OVER THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK.

After above average rainfall over the eastern inland of Australia last week, a drier airmass has descended across the eastern inland with high pressure keeping things dry.


A quieter week of weather over much of the nation with a high pressure ridge over the eastern inland moving southeast to be over the ACT by Tuesday afternoon.


But later this week, a trough will advance from South Australia through to the eastern inland of NSW and QLD and link up with moisture to provide rain and storms once again.


This event will be not a long duration event but could be quite productive with a significant amount of moisture an instability combining to bring scattered falls.


QLD Surface Pressure Pattern - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

Euro 12z Run.

Note the settled airmass descending over the region with light winds and clear skies. Cold nights and sunny days to continue with a warming trend into later this week. This is likely to continue until about Friday, then a trough will introduce cloud and showers to the southern interior, with more productive rainfall likely to be aligned along the NSW/QLD border. The falls will clear southeast by Saturday. Also with the high pressure moving eastwards during the middle part of the week, onshore winds will redevelop bringing showers and moisture towards the east coast.

QLD Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

Euro 12z Run.

Rainfall light on for the first half of this week, with showers developing along the coastal fringe in weak onshore winds. A trough moving through NSW will bring the next chance of rainfall through the southern inland during Friday and Saturday but that will be short lived, then back to dry with westerly winds developing over the weekend.

QLD Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

GFS 12z Run.

Good agreement on the modelling for the next phase of weather, the placement of the trough over the southern inland will determine the rainfall amounts for southern inland regions. This will be determined by about Wednesday or Thursday as the system rolls into SA and we get a better look at it then in real time and that data is fed back into the model data.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

The rainfall will be coastal until about later this week with a cloud and rain increasing through the southern inland bordering NSW with that trough. Inland areas dry this week away from the south with a subtropical ridge adopting it's winter track which is seasonal for this time of year.

The other talking point with the weather coming up into the medium term is a shift to below average temperatures anticipated for the period of the 12th-19th of July. Nights could be well below average with frost developing with cool dry and windy days. A dry airmass over the region and stable pressure patterns will keep the days clear and sunny, while the south cops constant frontal weather and wet and windy weather.


Upper flow pattern for the coming 2 weeks- Valid Monday 5th of July 2021.

GFS 18z run.

A winter time pattern is about to develop in the coming 10 days and persist throughout the remainder of the month with cold wintry weather for the south. The thing to note for QLD is the influence of moisture from the northwest but at this stage I anticipate that to divert south of the region and for QLD through the NT and northwest WA to be under a ridge for the period below and seasonal weather.

Temperature Forecast Anomalies - July 12th through 19th 2021.

Certainly a good chunk of next week could end up being below average, especially through the back half of the week with a cold airmass developing over southern Australia with a large scale long wave trough moving through.

More details to come this afternoon.




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